NBA - 807 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 808 Denver Nuggets
Projected Line: 204 points
Projected Line: 204 points
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
We have a good spot for both defenses on this game. These two teams faced each other earlier on the week, with Oklahoma City easily winning on a 117-97 blowout, with 67-47 on half time. However, it's important to note that Denver simply didn't have legs on that game to be competitive, as they had gone to overtime against Portland in the previous night. From all players, it was clear visible that Ty Lawson had to gas left in the tank, after a big duel against Damian Lillard the night before. Not only Lawson couldn't attack the basket, as he allowed Westbrook to have 12-20 FG 8-9 FT, in a 32 points effort!
Oklahoma City did whatever they wanted to do with Denver's tired legs in that game. However, things will be different today. This time, it's Oklahoma City that doesn't have a great spot for this contest, as they are coming from an overtime game at Dallas last Friday night that forced both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook to have super efforts! Durant had a career high 52 points in 50 minutes, while Westbrook had 12-26 FG and 31 points in 45 minutes. So, this time, Oklahoma City won't have a physical edge over Denver.
On the other hand, Denver is coming from a humiliating home loss against Washington, where they played zero defense! They thought they could simply outscore the Wizards and they couldn't after all. It was visible that the Nuggets didn't have a good effort in that game, as the Nuggets got outrebounded by Washington! Denver grabbed just 44.5% of the rebounds and allowed the Wizards to score 18 fast break points. They showed zero effort on defense and because of that, they lost. For today, their mindset will be much different, as they will certainly be more aggressive on defense. Curiously, the Under is 6-2 on Denver's 8 games after a loss.
Denver is coming to this game with a bounce back mindset, while Oklahoma City doesn't have a great spot today in order to have another offensive explosion like they had at Dallas on their last game. It's also important to know that the Thunder had just 13 assists against the Mavericks, on a clear sign of lack of ball movement and lot of isolation plays. Now against a fired up Nuggets team and on a poor spot, I don't believe Oklahoma City will be able to have a big offensive game today. Therefore, I expect this game to be a relatively low scoring game, something that looking at the current totals line, allows me to take the Under in here on a Double Dime Play!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 807/808 Under 210.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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