Projected Line: 203 points
Washington is coming from a great road win at Portland, where their frontcourt destroyed the Blazers, with Nene Hilario and Emeka Okafor combining for 28 field goal attempts, 57% FG, 8 offensive rebounds, 22 total rebounds, 8 assists, 4 steals and 37 points! The Wizards dominated the game and if it wasn't for their silly turnovers, they would have easily won this game and not just on a buzzer beat. I didn't like the way both teams defended in the paint and it was evident that both teams can't really be consistent throughout their game. This is why we had two high scoring quarters and two low scoring quarters.
The Wizards's spot for tonight isn't easy. It will be their final game road trip, with five game in eight days and they will end it at Utah, who is rested and they will be super aggressive tonight. I know that Washington is playing with a 10-player rotation, but this is still a tough spot, especially on a game at Utah against a rested Jazz team.
Utah didn't disappoint on their last game against Cleveland. They had a clear edge down low with Al Jefferson leading the way with 7-14 FG. Utah shot 13-20 FG at the rim, 8-15 FG from 3-9 feet and had a super edge on transitions, confirming that they attack very quickly on home games: 21 fast break points with 13-20 FG on transition plays! Utah has three strong areas on their offense (post ups, cuts and transitions) and even though Washington's defense is good on these areas (#10 on post up defense, #11 on cuts defense and #3 on transition defense), I didn't like what I saw from their interior defense against Portland, while their transition defense wasn't tested on their last game, as Portland really didn't want to run. I believe a super confident Wizards team won't have a lockdown defense mindset right now and on this poor spot, they will pay the price of that.
With John Wall and AJ Price back, Washington's offense has immediately improved their pick and roll ball handler plays, as they are averaging 0.75 on this kind of plays for the season, but since they game against Oklahoma City, they are averaging 0.79 PPP and 0.86 PPP over their last 5 games! Now against a poor pick and roll defense like Utah's, Washington is going to have a considerable edge on offense today. Utah's interior defense has been weak all season long and they haven't been impressive lately neither by allowing 67% FG at the rim over their last 10 games. With Nene Hilario and Emeka Okafor playing very well down low and with Kevin Seraphin helping while coming off the bench, Washington is going to have another good offensive edge in here as well.
Utah won at Washington earlier on the season on a very low scoring game (83-76), but this game was played on a period where coach Corbin decided to use a big lineup with Paul Millsap, Al Jefferson and Derrick Favors at the same time (disaster), while Washington was playing with a frontcourt composed by Emeka Okafor and Jan Vesely (disaster as well). Right now, both teams are playing well on offense and considering today's spot and matchup, I believe this game will be a high scoring one and therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 715/716 Over 196,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
***UPGRADED INTO A DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
Extra value due to the line movement
Pick: 1 unit on 715/716 Over 194 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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