NBA 05/29 Premium Play: Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs

NBA - 705 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 706 San Antonio Spurs

Projected line: 207 points | San Antonio by 8 points

The Game 1 of this series was brutal, with the tremendous comeback from the Spurs, who quickly came from being down by 9 points to be up by 10 points in a very short span. I think that it will be extremely hard for Oklahoma City to have a new opportunity to win on the road in this series. The key moment of that game was in a timeout in the 4th quarter where coach Popovich asked his players to show some nastiness and they responded pretty well by attacking unmercifully the paint.

In the 1st half and until the 3rd quarter, the Spurs didn't perform at their normal level offensively, as they were hesitating a lot, they overdribbled in some occasions and on others, they simply held the ball too much, with the fatal outcome of that lack of confidence being not only the fact that they couldn't get good looks on the basket, but especially their lack of turnovers! At the break, San Antonio had already committed 14 turnovers that were transformed in 15 points to the Thunder. Still, the Spurs shot 47% FG while Oklahoma City shot 41% FG, with that being the reason why they were just trailing at halftime by one point.

Part of the problem was due to a small adjustment of Oklahoma City in their pick-and-roll defense, as the Thunder would immediately go into a zone formation when the Spurs hinted they were about to run the pick-and-roll. Perkins or Ibaka would slide to the angle where Parker or Ginobili were looking to go, then this allowed Westbrook enough time to go around the screener and get back on Parker quick enough to block his shot or force either of the the guards to make a difficult pass.

In fact, that's one of the main reasons why Parker had a terrible first half, as he failed to adapt to this new look from the Thunder defense. Suddenly, the red hot Spurs offense was stagnant! According to mysynergy, San Antonio shot 1-7 FG in ISO plays, with the surprise in here not being their poor shooting, but the fact that they had 8 ISO plays in a game! Not coincidentally, all those ISO plays occurred in first three quarters of the game, with 7 of them happening during the 1st half.

Ginobili was the only Spurs player that performed at his standards on the offensive end, but still San Antonio survived despite a subpar game from their spot up shooters! San Antonio shot just 9-23 FG on spot up plays, with Leonard 3-9 FG, Green 0-6 FG and Bonner 0-2 FG! Only Neal stepped up his game by shooting 5-9 FG!

Onto today's game, with the P&R defense from the Thunder figured out, San Antonio will be "nasty" since the start of this game and so, I don't believe that Oklahoma City will be able to hold the Spurs offense through the first quarters of the game like they did in Game 1! Note that in that fourth quarter, San Antonio attempted a total of 18 free throws, while prior to that they managed a meager seven attempts at the charity stripe. 

On the other side, Oklahoma City went small as expected by playing Durant in the PF position for most of the second half. Coach Brooks decided to rotate the center position between Ibaka, Perkins and Collison. Ibaka didn't play a single minute in the last quarter and Brooks recognized that he should play more minutes, so we can expect Ibaka to be on the floor late in the game today. But Popovich will easily counter this move, as he can play Duncan who torched Ibaka in Game 1 when the two players went head to head or if Brooks decides to play Perkins and Ibaka together, then Diaw will be on the floor ready to torch the Thunder defense, as note that despite all the struggles from the Spurs in Game 1, Diaw had 4-6 FG and 4 assists in 22 minutes of play.

Like the Spurs, I expect Oklahoma City to be more aggressive tonight, especially from Harden, who played an uncharacteristic game, as he struggled from the floor and couldn't get to the line. For the first time this season he didn't a free throw! The pace of Game 1 was fast with a pace factor of 94.14 and with both teams using small lineups once again, I don't expect the pace to change dramatically for tonight. Both teams will shoot better from the field, especially the Spurs, while the Thunder should get some more trips to the FT line.

Still, I believe San Antonio will improve more from Game 1 than Oklahoma City will, especially with coach Popovich being more than ready to counter any kind of move the Thunder try to perform. Therefore, I expect a comfortable win for San Antonio for today and so, I'll take them in here. As I expect an offensive improvement for both teams, I'll also take the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 705/706 Over 202 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 706 San Antonio Spurs (-4,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

MLB Free Premium Card 05/29

MLB - 903 Cincinnati Reds @ 904 Pittsburgh Pirates

(Starting Pitchers: H. Bailey vs C. Morton)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 903 Cincinnati Reds ML (w/ H. Bailey) @ -122 / 1.82 on 5Dimes

MLB - 905 St Louis Cardinals @ 906 Atlanta Braves

(Starting Pitchers: J. Westbrook vs R. Delgado)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 905 St Louis Cardinals ML (w/ J. Westbrook) @ +101 / 2.01 on 5Dimes

MLB - 907 Washington Nationals @ 908 Miami Marlins

(Starting Pitchers: E. Jackson vs A. Sanchez)

 

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 907/908 Under 7.5 (w/ E. Jackson & A. Sanchez) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

MLB - 915 Kansas City Chiefs @ 916 Cleveland Indians

(Starting Pitchers: W. Smith vs J. Masterson)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 915 Kansas City Chiefs ML (w/ W. Smith) @ +135 / 2.35 on Bookmaker

MLB - 917 Baltimore Orioles @ 918 Toronto Blue Jays

(Starting Pitchers: J. Arrieta vs J. Masterson)

I really like the Orioles tonight against Ricky Romero, who has been struggling with his command, as in the last 4 games, he walked 5, 5, 4 and 7 batters, while he managed to not allow more than 4 runs twice. However, he can't obviously go into the distance as he needs consistently more than 16 pitches per inning to go through. His fastball was once a devastating pitch, but he is really struggling with his FB’s as of late. Some advanced metric stats are telling us that he doesn’t create value anymore with this pitch. 

Well, things won't be easy for him tonight, as the Orioles are the second best team in the league vs LHP in OPS, with a .795 mark and they are currently #9 in crushing fast balls with a FB/C of 0.54! Finally, the Blue Jays bullpen despite having a nice day off rest because of yesterday’s good game of Hutchison, they still are a bit taxed after the demolition suffered in Texas.

On the other side, Arrieta is alternating some good starts with some shaky ones, but that’s the price when you face the Yankees, the red hot White Sox, the Rangers or the Red Sox in 5 of his last 9 starts. Even if he struggles tonight, the Orioles have one of the best bullpens in the league, so I think that Baltimore is clearly being underrated for tonight and therefore, I'll take Baltimore tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 917 Baltimore Orioles ML (w/ J. Arrieta) @ +122 / 2.22 on Betonline

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 917/918 Over 8.5 (w/ J. Arrieta & J. Masterson) @ -105 / 1.95 on Betonline

MLB - 921 Detroit Tigers @ 922 Boston Red Sox

(Starting Pitchers: J. Verlander vs D. Bard)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 921 Detroit Tigers ML (w/ J. Verlander) @ -151 / 1.66 on 5Dimes

MLB - 925 Oakland Athletics @926 Minnesota Twins

(Starting Pitchers: J. Parker vs C. DeVries)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 926 Minnesota Twins ML (w/ C. DeVries) @ +101 / 2.01 on Betonline

WNBA Premium Card 05/29

WNBA - 601 Tulsa Shock @ 602 Los Angeles Sparks

Projected line: 160 points | LA Sparks by 12 points

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

The Tulsa Shock has probably the worst interior frontcourt in the league and so, it is quite easy to score against them down low. In their last game, I was expecting the Washington Mystics to exploit such weakness, but the Mystics simply committed an astonished mark of 32 turnovers: that's an average of a turnover for every 48 seconds! The Mystics shot 58% FG in the first half, but they had also 15 turnovers and then in the second half, they just panicked and stopped hitting the basket while they kept committing turnovers.

After allowing 40 and 48 points in the paint, Tulsa allowed “just” 28 paints in the paint against Washington! For tonight, I expect that mark to go above the 40 points again because the Sparks are loaded in the frontcourt with Candace Parker and rookie Ogwumike! They are coming from a 56 points in the paint mark against the Mercury and tonight, I expect the Sparks to pound the Shock down low.

The Sparks are coached by a former Atlanta assistant coach and their offense is looking similar to the Dream offense, which means that they are pushing the pace in order to score in transition. In their last three games, they have scored 15, 17 and 12 fast break points! This style fits well with the Shock because they like also to push the pace and that's why they play the game with a 3-guards lineup in the majority of the time!

This will be the Sparks 5th game of the season, but this will just be their first contest in which they are the “clear” favorite to win. I expect them to be a bit relaxed for tonight while giving some space to Tulsa. The Shock are vastly improved from last season and I don’t think that they should be a 15 points underdogs in here as well. I’m looking for this contest to be a wide open game in which the Sparks will finish strong. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in a Double Dime Play and Tulsa in a Single Dime Play.

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 601/602 Over 154,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 601 Tulsa Shock (+15,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA 05/28 Premium Play: Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat

NBA - 703 Boston Celtics @ 704 Miami Heat

Projected lines: 183 points | Miami by 4 points

Boston is coming from a very tough series against Philadelphia, where they needed 7 games to beat the 76ers. So, the spot isn't great for them today, as the Celtics are a bit banged up and had just 1 day off to rest and prepare for this contest. However, I believe Boston has enough conditions to make this game competitive and I believe fatigue may be a factor but just down the stretch, something not enough for Miami to be able to cover such a large spread.

Matchup wise, Boston will be the first team that has the tools to cause problems to Miami's defense. The Heat have been struggling this season in defending spot up plays and when Miami faced teams with an excellent ball movement, they kept showing problems in closing out the shooters. Lebron and Wade are excellent team help defenders, but against a sharp ball movement like the Celtics', they aren't quick enough in closing the gaps.

Until now, Miami faced the Knicks and Indiana in the post season, two teams with a stagnant offense, so I'll show you the assists rate of these two teams in comparison with Boston during the regular season: Indiana was #25 with 52.98%, the Knicks were #22 with 55.4%, while Boston was... #1 with 65.3%! Also during this playoffs, the Knicks averaged 12.6 assists per game against Miami, Indiana averaged 16.3 assists per game against Miami, while the Celtics are averaging 21.5 assists per game in this playoffs!  Boston will also use their big advantage on the frontcourt with Garnett and Bass vs Battier and Turiaf/Anthony to create mismatches on the outside. Miami will have a tough assignment in stopping Garnett, who is smart enough to pass the ball to the open man on the outside.

On the other side, Miami's offense exploded in the game 4 against Indiana and since then, they have been great. Wade was obviously the key, but the Hear is also now moving the ball better and more importantly, they are moving without the ball as well. In games 2 and 3 against Indiana, Miami shot a combined of 15-61 24% FG in cuts, spot ups and transitions, while in games 4, 5 and 6, they improved those numbers to 50-81 61.7% FG! Bradley would surely be a huge defensive lift for Boston in order to stop Wade, but with his absence and a hobbled Allen, Wade will have a good chance to come up big in this series. The three best offensive games of the 76ers in their series against the Celtics were when they pushed the ball and scored double digits points on fast breaks (games 1, 3 & 4) and I expect Miami to have obviously a similar edge in this department against a slow footed Celtics team.

I believe both teams will have some offensive edge for this game and therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here looking at the very low totals line. I also believe Boston will have the mental edge for this contest and so, I expect them to turn this game into a competitive battle. So, I'll also be taking the Celtics tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703/704 Over 179,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703 Boston Celtics (+8,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

MLB Free Premium Card 05/28

MLB - 955 St Louis Cardinals @ 956 Atlanta Braves

(Starting Pitchers: L. Lynn vs T. Hanson)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 956 Atlanta Braves ML (w/ T. Hanson) @ -129 / 1.78 on 5Dimes

MLB - 973 Chicago White Sox @ 974 Tampa Bay Rays

(Starting Pitchers: C. Sale vs M. Moore)
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on  973 Chicago White Sox  ML (w/  C. Sale) @ -102 / 1.98 on 5Dimes

NBA 05/27 Premium Card: Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs

NBA - 701 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 702 San Antonio Spurs

Projected line: 208 points | San Antonio by 8 points

This series will be without a doubt the best series of this year's playoffs and possibly whoever wins it will become NBA champions if Chris Bosh doesn't recover in time to join his Miami team mates. I've been giving a lot of praise to what the Spurs offense has been doing not only in this playoffs like also in the regular season. They didn't have any kind of letdown in the playoffs until now by averaging 114.20 in offensive ratings, while having just a subpar offensive performance against the Jazz in the close out game.

In the regular season, this series ended with 2-1 favoring the Sputs, but besides the fact that all three games were fast paced ones, we shouldn't take any logical conclusion for this series, as not only Ginobili didn't play any of the games, as the Thunder always faced San Antonio while being on a back to back spot in the three games, with San Antonio was rested in their two wins.

The key factor of this series will be the Thunder frontcourt, as Ibaka and especially Perkins are one-dimensional players. Ibaka is still capable of shooting from mid range, but offensively these two players don't add a lot to the team, while defensively, they also can't defend anybody far from the basket. Ibaka's defensive game is down low exclusively where he excels in blocks, while Perkins simply has no mobility to defend well on the outside. Popovich will surely explore that as Duncan will be defended by one of these two players, with the other staying with one of the Spurs' stretched frontcourt players. Can you imagine Ibaka defending Bonner behind the 3pts line? Besides that, Diaw is also playing great and he can knock down jumpers as well, so coach Brooks won't have any choice than play small with Durant in the PF position. But the time that it will take him to realize that will give the Spurs a very good number of points today. Also, Oklahoma's previous opponents (Dallas & La Lakers) didn't use P&R plays against them, but in this series their defense will be exposed in this kind of play by both Parker and Ginobili. 

On the other side, the Thunder are also in a completely different level from Utah and the Clippers, San Antonio's first two opponents in the postseason. San Antonio's run has been great, but they faced a one-dimensional team in Utah that just couldn't hit from the outside (35-100 FG from 16-23 feet and 9-45 3pts) and then, they also faced the hobbled Clippers, with Paul, Blake and Butler banged up and with the team from LA lacking any other offensive weapons that could hang with the Spurs' offensive strength. It was comical at times to watch Evans and Jordan playing together on offense during that series!

So, the Spurs' defense wasn't attacked in the perimeter from Utah and the Clippers, something that will radically change with Oklahoma City due to Westbrook, Harden and Durant! The Thunder will also explore the Spurs' bad transition defense (they scored double digits fast break points in all three regular season games against San Antonio) and they can really hit some great shots from the outside.

I expect a fast paced game tonight, with both team's great offensive game taking advantage of their edges today and therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here. I'll be also taking the Spurs today, as they will be better prepared for tonight's game, especially in taking advantage of Perkins' and Ibaka's problems in defending far from the basket.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Over 204 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 702 San Antonio Spurs (-5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

WNBA Premium Card 05/27

WNBA - 651 Indiana Fever @ 652 Atlanta Dream

Projected line: Atlanta by 8 points

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 652 Atanta Dream (-3,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

WNBA - 653 Seattle Storm @ 654 Minnesota Lynx

Projected line: 141 points

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 653/654 Under 145,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

NBA Premium Card 05/26: Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics

NBA - 549 Philadelphia 76ers @ 550 Boston Celtics 

Projected line: 165 points |  Boston by 3 points

Boston surprised the 76ers in Game 5 when they used always two “big players” on the floor and they literally spanked the 76ers down low. Doc Rivers simply can’t play small now that Avery Bradley is gone and Ray Allen is really limping on the floor.

76ers’ coach Doug Collins responded well in Game 6 and the 76ers simply shut down the Celtics frontcourt. Boston after shooting 21-28 FG in the paint in G5, they were held to just 9-22FG in G6! After being completely absent in the first games of this series, Elton Brand looked well in the last two games. Actually after a decent game in G5, I was expecting a letdown from Brand but he was even better w/34min, 5-9FG 13pts and 10 rebounds. Brand was also good on the defensive end and this factor is a major plus for the 76ers because PHI can now use Brand and Hawes/Allen vs KG and Bass. 

With the Celtics unable to clearly beat the 76ers down low, I expect some problems for the Celtics tonight. Philadelphia is playing great defense and we should not discount the fact that they have more depth on the bench. Doc Rivers can’t surprise anymore Doug Collins, he doesn’t have any choice unless giving Pierce, Rondo and Garnett +42min and hope that Ray Allen doesn’t limp too much. Boston can’t deliver a full 48-min of consistent basketball and the 76ers will turn this game into a dogfight. 

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 549 Philadelphia 76ers (+6) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 DimesPick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 549/550 Under 170 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

WNBA Premium Card 05/26

WNBA - 601 Tulsa Shock @ 602 Washington Mystics

Projected line: 154 Points 

Tulsa was extremely competitive in the first two games even though they lost both with bad decisions down the stretch. They play in a fast pace and by being aggressive on the defensive end, they want to create turnovers and score in transition. San Antonio and Phoenix had 24 and 23 TO’s against them and no surprisingly the Shock scored double digits fast break points in both games. Their perimeter game is really strong and I expect them to create some problems to Washington’s defense. Washington committed 23 turnovers in their first game vs. Chicago – poor ball handling so Tulsa will be able to once again execute their game plan.

The weakest part of this Tulsa team is their interior defense. They allowed 40 and 48 points in the paint L2 games and this bodes well for Washington because the Mystics’ strength relies on their frontcourt. Langhorne and Currie performed well against Chicago (that features the best defensive player in the league in Fowles) w/14 and 16 points & a combined 12-21 FG mark. Against Tulsa poor interior defense, WAS won’t have any problem to score easy points down low. With Tulsa dictating the tempo of the game I have this contest to easily reach the 150’s points mark.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 601/602 Over 149 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

WNBA - 605 LA Spars @ 606 Phoenix Mercury

Projected line: 175 Points 

This will be the Sparks’ third game in just 5 days with long trips for every game (LA-MIN-PHX) and with them being shorthanded I don’t think that LA will be able to play consistent basketball for 40min. In fact, already against the Champions Lynx they simply ran out of gas in the last quarter. After scoring 19, 28 and 23 points, The Sparks were held to just 14 points in the last 10 minutes of the game. According to Phoenix’s head coach:
"They'll probably see a team that's talking better on defense," Mercury coach Corey Gaines said. "Our defensive schemes are better. Hopefully our defense shows up and our offense will catch up."

The Mercury have been working much more on defense; Gaines estimates it takes up "70 percent" of practice. Much of the defensive concepts have been man-to-man. Forward Candice Dupree said the team has yet to work on the "rover zone," a modified matchup zone defense that the Mercury have been playing since at least 2007.

Yes, we are still waiting for Phoenix to deliver a good defensive effort after allowing 105 points to Minnesota and 87 points to Tulsa but today against a Sparks’ team in a bad physical spot, they’ll have a good chance.

The Mercury’s best player Taurasi is banged up and without their best interior player for the season, Phoenix won’t be able to dominate on the offensive end. In the first two games they’ve committed 17 and 23 turnovers so I don’t think that this contest will be a complete shootout as I’ve handicapped this contest to have 175 points. 

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 605/606 Under 178 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

WNBA Premium Card 05/25

WNBA - 651 San Antonio Silver Stars @ 652 Connecticut Sun

Projected line: 163 Points | Connecticut by 3 points

Even though they were playing against Tulsa, the Silver Stars showed a nice offensive flow especially from their guards: Hammon shot 6-12FG, rookie Robinson 5-5 FG and also Shameka Christon shot 6-8FG. However they were not a happy trigger perimeter based team, instead they worked well in cuts and screens and did their biggest damage in the paint with 40 points in the paint. This will work well for them tonight against Connecticut because the Sun had exactly this defensive problem against New York in the first two games of the season.  

Connecticut started well the season with two wins against the Liberty in which their frontcourt w/Tina Charles and Jones dominated the paint. The Silver Stars defense is not capable of slowing down these two players, they allowed just 28 points in the paint against Tulsa but Tulsa really doesn’t have any really dominant interior player, let alone two players like Connecticut have.

However defensively the Sun allowed the Liberty to score 40 and 48 points in the paint so despite having two good interior players, their team help defense isn’t the best at all and this will hurt them tonight against San Antonio.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 651/652 Over 158 @ -105 / 1.95 on Pinnacle

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on  651 San Antonio Silver Stars (+7)  @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

WNBA - 653 New York Liberty @ 654 Atlanta Dream

Projected line: 156 Points

Atlanta’s offseason work was focused in improving their defense and in the first game of the season against Indiana they allowed 92 points! It wasn’t pretty for them but note that Indiana was just on fire from the three point line shooting 12-21 -> an incredible 57.1 % clip! This remarkable mark from the Fever won’t happen again soon and this erased the great work from Atlanta in clogging the paint: Indiana scored just 20 points in the paint and 18-49 FG in 2pts shots -> just 36.7%! New York struggled in the first three games behind the line w/11-53 and they will be focused in attacking down low tonight.

The problem is that their offensive chemistry isn’t there yet. In the first 3 games they had 14, 14 and just 5 assists so Atlanta has a good chance to make a defensive bounce back game. 

Atlanta isn’t a good shooting team and they will miss their best interior player until the Olympics Games. New York has a loaded frontcourt so it won’t be easy for Atlanta to have easy points down low.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 653/654 Under 161 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

WNBA - 655 Indiana Fever @ 656 Chicago Sky

Projected line: 146 Points | PK Line

Chicago did a lot of moves in the offseason and they started well this season with a road win against Washington. They have the “Dwight Howard of the WNBA” in Sylvia Fowles and she crushed the Mystics fronline with 23 points w/10-14FG. Washington shot 51.9% from the field but note that still they scored only 69 points because of two factors: 1) they play in a pure half court style and 2) they had 21 turnovers! 

Obviously their team chemistry isn’t clicking right now and they’ll need some more games to gel together.  The problem for them is that they will face the Indiana Fever tonight! Indiana have their system established for years and they have been one of the best defensive teams so they won’t have problems in slowing down a team that is a work in progress.

Indiana is coming from a historic shooting night against Atlanta in their first game of the season and even though they are a good shooting team, I don’t think that they will be capable to duplicate this kind of performance tonight. Indiana also likes to operate in the half court so we can expect this contest to be a slow paced one. In this scenario, the Fever are the best team in this moment of the season.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 655/656 Under 149.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 DimesPick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 655 Indiana Fever (+3) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

MLB Free Premium Card 05/24

MLB - 953 Atlanta Braves @ 954 Cincinnati Reds

(Starting Pitchers: R. Delgado vs H. Bailey)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 954 Cincinnati Reds ML (w/H. Bailey) @ -121 / 1.82 on Betonline

MLB - 955 San Francisco Giants @ 956 Miami Marlins

(Starting Pitchers: R. Vogelsong vs A. Sanchez)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on  956 Miami Marlins ML (w/ A. Sanchez) @ -143 / 1.70 on Betonline

MLB - 957 Philadelphia Phillies @ 958 St. Louis Cardinals

(Starting Pitchers: J. Blanton vs J. Westbrook)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 958 St. Louis Cardinals ML (w/ J. Westbrook) @ -130 / 1.77 on 5 Dimes

WNBA Premium Card 05/24

WNBA - 601 LA Sparks @ 602 Minnesota Lynx

Projected line: 158 Points

The Sparks defeated twice the Storm in their first two games of the season behind two strong defensive performances in which they held the Storm to 81.9 and 83.9 offensive ratings. Seattle is struggling early on playing without two of their best offensive players in the last seasons and committed 27 and 19 turnovers against LA. They also aren’t an aggressive team and went just 9 and 13 times to the FT line in those two games so it was relatively easy for LA to defend the Storm…

However the champions Lynx are a completely different challenge for LA. In the first two games, MIN scored 105 and 80 points w/off. rates of 124.4 and 109.0 – nothing new for the best offensive team in the league. Their frontcourt is loaded and they will create problems to the LA’s rookie center tonight. The only decent thing that SEA was able to perform against LA was by their center Ann Wauters – 8-12FG and 6-10FG and so I think that MIN offense will be great once again. On the other side, LA is shooting well from the perimeter and unlike last season, they are pushing the ball to score in transition. Seattle operates in the half court so the Sparks will get more chances tonight to score fast break points against Minnesota who likes to push the ball as well.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 601/602 Over 153.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 05/24: Miami Heat @ Indiana Pacers

NBA - 545 Miami Heat @ 546 Indiana Pacers

Projected line: PK Line | 178 Points

Miami crushed the Pacers in Game 5 and even Pacer’s president Larry Bird called them out saying that they were soft. I expect the Pacers to make some adjustments for tonight and deliver a huge effort. 
Rebounding has been the key in this series:

Game 1: Miami 56.2%
Game 2: Indiana 54.0%
Game 3: Indiana 57.8%
Game 4: Miami 56.2%
Game 5: Miami 50.3%

The team that is winning the boards battle is also winning the game and for tonight I expect the Pacers to be focused in this particular department. Haslem and Pittman are out for tonight due to suspension and so the Heat will have to play LeBron James some PF position and/or giving Juan Howard some minutes. Either way, the Pacers have now more conditions to win the rebounding department. 
In game 5, Miami scored 22 fast break points vs. just 2 from the Pacers. After shooting 5-11FG; 2-9FG; 5-13FG and 7-12FG in transition, the Heat went 10-14 FG in the last game! Indiana did a poor job in stopping one of the strongest links of the Heat offense and once again I expect the Pacers to do a better job in here. Fouling early is an option and I wouldn’t be surprised if some hard fouls happens again.

Wade and James together have been spectacular in the last 6 quarters of this series and in the last game aside of transition points, these two players did the majority of the damage in the Pick n roll! Miami ran 31.9% of their offensive sets in Pick n Rolls ball handler plays while shooting 9-19 FG, they even went 5-5 FG in roll man plays! The problem is that without Haslem, Miami basically doesn’t have any pick n pop threats in the game so the Pacers will edge hard(er) the ball handler, making tougher for James and Wade to score after the screen.
I expect a regression in these three factors for Miami tonight…

On the other end, the Pacers are having some problems to score against Miami. Coach Vogel really didn’t make an effort to involve Roy Hibbert on offense in the last game and this will change tonight. The Pacers shot 21-43 FG at the rim L2 games – just 48.8%! With the Pacers having the edge on the glass I expect them to be more assertive at the rim.

This contest will be a low scoring game in my opinion while the Pacers will be extremely competitive. Not coincidently, the two games that the Pacers defeated the Heat, the game went Under the total posted.  

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 546 Indiana Pacers (+3) @ -110 / 1.91 on BookmakerPick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 545/546 Under 182.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 05/23: Boston Celtics @ Philadelphia 76ers

NBA - 541 Boston Celtics @ 542 Philadelphia 76ers

Projected line: Boston by 3 points | 171 Points

Avery Bradley didn’t play in the last game and Doc Rivers had no choice but to use a traditional lineup all game long. Deliberated or not, it worked for the Celtics and I don’t think that Doc Rivers will change his approach for tonight’s game.

In the first games of this series, Rivers used a lineup of Rondo-Bradley-Allen-Pierce-Garnett for long stretches and once Philadelphia properly adjusted, the Celtics were demolished in the second half of the game 4. Boston was crushed on the glass w/5-17 offreb edge and/or having just 39.3% of the total rebounds! By playing small, Doug Collins used Young as PF and Young enjoyed a big game while the 76ers scored 27 fast break points! 

In game 5, Rivers played always with two traditional “bigs” on the floor. Stiemsma who didn’t play a single minute in game 4 logged 14 minutes in game 5 and the Celtics frontcourt absolutely crushed the 76ers interior defense! Stiemsma had 5-5 FG and 10 points, Garnett went 8-17 FG and Bass went 9-13 FG, scored 27 points and alone he outscored the 76ers in the third quarter (18-16)! This was the key for the Celtics for their win! The 76ers doesn’t have two good interior players that can play against Garnett and Bass. Hawes is a defensive liability; Brand is battling some nagging injuries and after a good first half he completely faded apart in the second half – he played 30 minutes and I don’t think he will have any energy left in the tank; Young is useless in this scenario and he showed why in G5 w/3-8FG and 4 turnovers in just 18 minutes and finally Lavoy Allen is the only 76ers player that is capable of hanging with the Celtics frontcourt. However Allen is still a rookie and foul trouble is a potential problem for him especially if Doug Collins decided to use Allen on Garnett all game long.

Pace factor of this series:

Game 1: 90.3
Game 2: 90.3
Game 3: 85.5
Game 4: 87.9
Game 5: 82.8

Obviously,  by not going small and laboring almost exclusively in the halfcourt, the Celtics turned game 5 into the slowest contest so far in this series. I don’t think that this will change for tonight and so, the 76ers offense will be on trouble because they simply cannot score in half court sets against the Celtics. Remember that in game 4, 52 of their total 92 points came exclusively from fast break and free throw chances and the Celtics will limit their FB chances for tonight.

On the other end, I don’t think that the Celtics’ offense will be as a good as they were in the last game! Boston enjoyed a nice 2-day off span to prepare game 4 and they were able to be aggressive and attempted a series high - 33 free throws! By going “big”, the Celtics crushed the 76ers interior defense -> 19-26FG at the rim! They caught Philadelphia off guard and obviously the 76ers will be prepared for this tonight.
However this is a tough mental spot for a younger team like Philadelphia! With the game on the line, I really don’t think that they will have the proper mental toughness to beat an experienced team like the Celtics. I remember that in the pivotal game 6 against the Bulls in the first round, the 76ers was leading 48-40 at the break just to allow the shorthanded Bulls come back in the second half and only two late free throws by Iguodala knocked out the Bulls.

I expect the Celtics to finish off the series tonight in a low scoring game. 


Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 541 Boston Celtics (+1) @ -110 / 1.91 on BookmakerPick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 541/542 Under 175.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on The Greek

NBA Premium Play 05/22: Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat

NBA - 537 Indiana Pacers @ 538 Miami Heat

Projected line: Miami by 4 points | 176 points

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 537/538 Under 181 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 537 Indiana Pacers (+7) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA 05/21 Premium Play: Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics

NBA - 533 Philadelphia 76ers @ 534 Boston Celtics

Projected line: Boston by 12 points

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

After the incredible effort from Boston in Game 3, it would be inevitable that a physical letdown would happen to them in Game 4, with just 1 day off to rest between games. Either coach Rivers would save some minutes to the starters but with that he would see his team getting outplayed by the Sixers 2nd unit or sooner or later, Boston would have no legs to hang with Philadelphia. What happened in Game 4 was exactly that with epic proportions, as Boston had a huge lead until the 3rd quarter, as they started the game with a lot of intensiveness in both ends of the floor and so, they quickly gained a double digits points lead. But after that, the team started to lose intensiveness until losing the game. 

Still, it was clear that the best Celtics completely stop the Sixers half court offense. Philadelphia just couldn't score in the half court against Boston! Looking at the Mysynergy numbers, we can see that Philadelphia had 3-11 FG in P&R ball handler, 3-7 FG in P&R roll man, 1-3 FG in post up plays, 4-10 FG in spot up plays and 3-1 FG in cuts! Philadelphia was just able to score consistently from two ways: via transition and via free throws! Boston committed 17 turnovers that resulted in 15 points from the Sixers. Garnett was brilliant in Game 3, but he had a letdown in Game 4 and committed 7 turnovers on his own. The Sixers scored 27 fast break points, with great efficiency with 8-13 FG in transition. With the progressive physical inability from the Celtics, Philadelphia squashed the boards with a 17-5 edge in offensive boards or an 34.0 vs 12.5 edge in offensive rebound rates, besides being very aggressive with 36 FGA against 19 from Boston. With this difference of effort between two teams, the fact that the Sixers 2nd unit for the first time in this playoffs had a great game only made the physical edge bigger. The Sixers bench scored 44 points, with 46.8% FG, 24 rebounds and 6 steals!

So what changes for today's game?

First of all, the teams had 2 days off to rest! It has been clear in this series that when the Celtics are able to match the Sixers energy, Philadelphia doesn't have a chance in the offensive end and with 2 days off to rest for this contest, I expect Boston to have fresh legs. Of course the Sixers will also have fresh legs, but the physical edge won't be as big for Philadelphia as it was in the previous four games of the series. But this game is decisive, the Celtics have a good spot and with them being the best team, I expect Boston to easily win this game. Therefore, I'm taking the Celtics in here in a Double Dime Play!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 534 Boston Celtics (-5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

NBA 05/21 Premium Play: Los Angeles Lakers @ Oklahoma City Thunder

NBA - 535 Los Angeles Lakers @ 536 Oklahoma City Thunder

Projected line: 185 points | Oklahoma City by 4 points

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

These two teams are coming from a Game 4, who had once again a super slow pace:

Game 1: 86.10
Game 2: 82.18
Game 3: 87.74
Game 4: 84.36

In these circumstances, the Lakers are able to be competitive, as their frontcourt can keep up the pace in both ends of the floor and that's why they have been getting a rebounding edge in every game of this series. After the Game 1, the Lakers were always able to be competitive, as in the half court basketball, the Thunder's offense isn't that sharp.

Note that in Game 4, Oklahoma City shot 49.4% FG, while converting 38 FG shots, but they still had only 16 assists. After their 20-assist mark in the Game 1, the Thunder had just 15, 13 and 16 assists in the following games, a very low number. Oklahoma City shot 11-20 FG from 16-23 feet and 6-16 3pts, but this was the result of them making tough shots and not because of a good offensive flow that simply didn't exist. On the other hand, the Lakers have been getting a great edge from their big men and their 20-29 FG mark at the rim was great against a great interior defense like Oklahoma City, but once again down the stretch, they got tired and Kobe just tried to do too much. 

After 4 games, I don't believe that it will happen a radical change in the pace of today's game. So, we can expect this contest to be once again a half court game, where both teams will have to shoot better than 45% FG or more than 25 FT each for this contest to go over the total posted. I find that unlikely to happen, as with this game being their 3rd game in 4 nights and with a trip in the middle! Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here in a Double Dime Play. As I expect the Lakers to be competitive today in tonight's half court game, I'll be also taking them in a Single Dime Play.

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 535/536 Under 191 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 535 Los Angeles Lakers (+7,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

MLB Free Premium Card 05/21

MLB - 903 New York Mets @ 904 Pittsburgh Pirates

(Starting Pitchers: J. Santana vs E. Bedard)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 904 Pittsburgh Pirates ML (w/ E. Bedard) @ -115 / 1.87 on Betonline

MLB - 907 Colorado Rockies @ 908 Miami Marlins

(Starting Pitchers: J. Moyer vs M. Buehrle)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 907 Colorado Rockies ML (w/ J. Moyer) @ +140 / 2.40 on 5Dimes

MLB - 915 Los Angeles Dodgers @ 916 Arizona Diamondbacks

(Starting Pitchers: C. Capuano vs P. Corbin)

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 916 Arizona Diamondbacks ML (w/ P. Corbin) @ -126 / 1.79 on 5Dimes

NBA Premium Play 05/20: Miami Heat @ Indiana Pacers

NBA - 529 Miami Heat @ 530 Indiana Pacers

Projected line: Miami by 5 points

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 529 Miami Heat (-1,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 05/19: Oklahoma City Thunder @ Los Angeles Lakers

NBA - 527 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 528 Los Angeles Lakers

Projected line: 180 points |  Oklahoma City by 6 points

**TOP PLAY**

***TRIPLE & DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

Last night’s contest was a bizarre game in which the referees decided to be a huge factor and some of their calls were completely “WTF moments”! Here’s the correlation between FTA’s and points scored quarter by quarter:

1st quarter – 6 FT’s – 38 points
2nd quarter – 23 FT’s – 59 points
3rd quarter – 13 FT’s – 42 points
4th quarter – 28 FT’s - 56 points

Without the free throws, both the Lakes and the Thunder struggled to score! The pace factor in these series has been slow (86.1; 82.2 and 87.7) so we are talking about a typical half court series.

These two teams couldn’t generate easy looks down low: LAL 10-21 FG at the rim and OKC 13-26 FG at the rim! OKC’s bread and butter offensive play – Pick n Roll ball handler has been well defended by the Lakers since game 1 -> OKC had 31 plays in Game 3, shooting 8-25 FG for a subpar 0.74PPP.

On the other side, the Lakers strongest play this season has been posting up and OKC’s defense is doing a really good job in contesting these kinds of plays: in Game 3, LAL had 30 post up plays but shooting just 6-19 from the field!

For some reason both LAL and OKC shot bellow the 40% mark and had only 20 and 31 assists last night! So for tonight, we have the first back to back game of this postseason and after such physical contest I really think that both teams will struggle once again tonight.

However, OKC is the younger team and not only they played 3 games less than the Lakers but they have been using a 9/10 rotation vs. 8-man rotation from the Lakers. 4 of the Lakers starters played 37, 38, 39 and 40 minutes and I don’t think that both Bynum and Gasol will have the energy to match OKC’s younger legs. OKC’s physical edge will be enormous for tonight! 

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 527 Oklahoma City Thunder (-1)  @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 527/528 Under 189 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 05/19: San Antonio Spurs @ Los Angeles Clippers

NBA - 525 San Antonio Spurs @ 526 Los Angeles Clippers

Projected line: 195 points

After posting a pedestrian (for them obviously) number of 116.9 offensive rating in Game 1, the Spurs performed even better in game 2 with a 119.6 mark. Their ball movement is terrific and they create consistently an easy look in almost every single possession.

Near the basket they shot 17-24 FG (71%) at the rim and 7-10 FG from 3-9 feet! Once again they were red hot behind the line by shooting 10-25 and note that 9 of those 10 treys were assisted! With Tim Duncan playing so well, it’s really difficult for the Clippers to slow down the Spurs offensive machine. I’m expecting the Spurs to once again post a +110 offensive rating for today.

The “X factor” for this play will be on the Clippers side… They are shooting well from long distance in this series but they haven’t been aggressive enough down low. Tim Duncan is playing well but he isn’t the dominant defensive force he once was and Diaw/Splitter/Bonner aren’t exactly a powerful defensive combination, still the Clippers had only 9-16 FG at the rim in Game 2! 

Chris Paul had another poor game (in my opinion it was even worse than G1!). He is obviously banged up and his ability to shoot suffers a bit but he did really a bad job in feeding the Clippers big men – for some reason LAC attempted only 16 FG’s at the rim! Yes, he scored only 6 points in G1 vs. 10 in G2, but at least CP3 had 10 assists in game 1 vs. just 5 in game 2! For today, I expect Paul to be more assertive on the offensive end. If you watched last night’s games between the Lakers and the Thunder then you can expect this contest to have some free throws as well, something that will help us down the stretch.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 525/526 Over 191 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

MLB Free Premium Card 05/19

MLB - 907 Oakland Athletics @ 908 San Francisco Giants

(Starting Pitchers:  T. Ross vs R. Vogelsong)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 907 Oakland Athletics ML (w/ T. Ross) @ +117 / 2.17 on 5Dimes



MLB - 915 Seattle Mariners @ 916 Colorado Rockies

(Starting Pitchers: J. Vargas vs C. Friedrich)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on  916 Colorado Rockies  RL -1.5 (w/  C. Friedrich) @ +115 / 2.15 on 5 Dimes

UEFA - Champions League Soccer - Bayern Munchen vs Chelsea

UEFA - Champions League Soccer - Bayern Munchen vs Chelsea

Projected line: Bayern Munchen -200

Despite being a Final, I had Bayern Munchen with a fair line of -200 and I have to confess that I’m a bit pissed off of not releasing this play earlier – it would have been a Top Play obviously! However there were 3 Chelsea’s players in doubt for this contest during the week: their 2 center backs David Luiz and Cahill and their left winger Malouda so I’ve decided to wait for an accurate report. Apparently both Luiz and Cahill are fit while Malouda is a game time decision.

Chelsea will be shorthanded for this contest as Ramires, Meireles, Terry and Ivanovic are all suspended. Without Terry and Ivanovic, Chelsea’s central defense is a bit inexperience and prone to commit errors (especially from Luiz) with Luiz and Cahill being the starters and the Germans had a great striker on Marion Gomez but it is on the midfield where Bayern Munchen will have the biggest edge on the pitch.

Chelsea’s best player this season has been unquestionably the Brazilian Ramires and his absence hurts the team in both ways because Ramires not only is their best defensive midfielder but also his remarkable speed makes him a threat on the offensive end, while Meireles is another box-to-box midfielder for them. Just the potential scenario that Frank Lampard will have to play 90 minutes today is a scary proposition for Chelsea because Lampard no longer has the proper stamina to play in a game like this with a high tempo.

Chelsea was able to be in this final due to their defensive prowerness, no wonder their coach is Italian but I don’t think that their defensive formula who worked well against SL Benfica and Barcelona will work today against Bayern.

Both the Portuguese and the Spanish side supported their offensive game to the center of the field. It was really bizarre watching almost every Barcelona midfielder and attacker positioned on the center field against Chelsea despite playing against 10 Chelsea’s players in the second half! It is easier to defend for Chelsea’s who even put their striker Didier Drogba on the side of their defense…

The problem is that unlike Benfica or Barcelona, Bayern’s offense is an offense built to attack from their wing players. They have Ribery and Robben who gives the proper depth on the field and makes tougher to defend while they have a powerful striker on the middle that can finish and hold the ball.

Bayern’s has some weakness on the defensive end but because I expect Chelsea’s game plan to lay back and defend, I don’t think that their weakness will be fully explored.

Finally, note that Bayern will play at home. It’s in their stadium, they know the pitch and they’ll have the majority of the supporters (60/40) but at the end, they will win just because they are the better team in here!   

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Bayern Munchen ML @ -143 / 1.70 on Pinnacle

NBA 05/18 Premium Play: Oklahoma City Thunder @ Los Angeles Lakers

NBA - 523 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 524 Los Angeles Lakers

Projected line: 182 points | LA Lakers by 6 points

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

These two teams are coming from a Game 2 in this series, where the pace was ridiculously slow at 82! The Lakers decided to turn the game into the most half court game possible, where the Thunder stopped having an edge in transition. The team from LA also changed their approach in the P&R's and they succeed in that, as they clearly slowed down Westbrook. Of course Oklahoma City will make some adjustments for today, but the only way the Thunder can change to improve their offense would have to be with to make their big men to take more shots, as their frontcourt isn't offensive skilled enough to do that with consistent success.

The Lakers as usual had fatigue problems down the stretch in Game 2 and today this factor won't be different. However, this is a spot where the home team traditionally does very well and they showed in Game 2 that they can be competitive against the Thunder in a slow paced half court game, which is the most likely scenario for tonight's game. Therefore, considering the slow pace of this game and the tough spot for the two teams, I'll be taking the Under in here in a Double Dime Play. As I believe this is a good spot for the Lakers to finally win a game on this series, especially on a slow paced half court game, I'll be also taking the team from LA in tonight's game in a Single Dime Play.

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 523/524 Under 189,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 524 Los Angeles Lakers (-2,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker