MLB Premium Card 06/30

MLB - 919 Chicago White Sox @ 920 New York Yankees

(Starting Pitchers: J. Peavy vs H. Kuroda)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 920 New York Yankees ML (w/ H. Kuroda) @ -140 / 1.71 on 5Dimes

MLB - 931 Kansas City Royals @ 932 Minnesota Twins

(Starting Pitchers: J. Sanchez vs S. Diamond)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 932 Minnesota Twins RL -1.5 (w/ S. Diamond) @ +135 / 2.35 on 5Dimes

MLB - 901 Pittsburgh Pirates @ 902 St Louis Cardinals

(Starting Pitchers: J. Karstens vs L. Lynn)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 901/902 Over 9.5 (w/ J. Karstens & L. Lynn) @ +105 / 2.05 on 5Dimes

MLB - 905 Cincinnati Reds @ 906 San Francisco Giants

(Starting Pitchers: M. Latos vs B. Zito)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 905 Cincinnati Reds ML (w/ M. Latos) @ -125 / 1.80 on 5Dimes

MLB - 911 New York Mets @ 912 Los Angeles Dodgers

(Starting Pitchers: J. Santana vs N. Eovaldi)

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 911 New York Mets ML (w/ J. Santana) @ -153 / 1.65 on 5Dimes

MLB - 913 Arizona Diamondbacks @ 914 Milwaukee Brewers

(Starting Pitchers: W. Miley vs M. Fiers)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 913/914 Over 9 (w/ W. Miley & M. Fiers) @ -105 / 1.95 on 5Dimes

MLB - 915 San Diego Padres @ 916 Colorado Rockies

(Starting Pitchers: E. Volquez vs C. Friedrich)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 916 Colorado Rockies ML (w/ C. Friedrich) @ -123 / 1.81 on 5Dimes

MLB - 923 Kansas City Royals @ 924 Minnesota Twins

(Starting Pitchers: L. Hochevar vs C. De Vries)

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 923 Kansas City Royals ML (w/ L. Hochevar) @ -133 / 1.75 on Betonline

WNBA Premium Card 06/30

WNBA - 601 Seattle Storm @ 602 New York Liberty

Projected line: 135 points

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 601/602 Under 139.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

MLB Premium Card 06/29

MLB - 951 Houston Astros @ 952 Chicago Cubs

(Starting Pitchers: B. Norris vs P. Maholm)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 952 Chicago Cubs (w/  P. Maholm) @ -122 / 1.82 on 5Dimes

MLB - 953 Philadelphia Phillies @ 954 Miami Marlins

(Starting Pitchers: C. Lee vs J. Johnson)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 953/954 Under 7.5 (w/ C. Lee & J. Johnson) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

MLB - 957 San Diego Padres @ 958 Colorado Rockies

(Starting Pitchers: J. Marquis vs J. Francis)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 958 Colorado Rockies ML (w/ J. Francis) @ -134 / 1.75 on 5Dimes

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 957/958 Over 11.5 (w/ J. Marquis & J. Francis) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bookmaker

MLB - 959 Arizona Diamondbacks @ 960 Milwaukee Bucks

(Starting Pitchers: I. Kennedy vs R. Wolf)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 959 Arizona Diamondbacks ML (w/ I. Kennedy) @ -115 / 1.87 on Betonline

MLB - 961 Pittsburgh Pirates @ 962 St Louis Cardinals

(Starting Pitchers: K. Correia vs A. Wainwright)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 962 St Louis Cardinals RL -1.5 (w/ A. Wainwright) @ +110 / 2.10 on 5Dimes

MLB - 963 New York Mets @ 964 Los Angeles Dodgers

(Starting Pitchers: R. Dickey vs A. Harang)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 963 New York Mets ML (w/ R. Dickey) @ -138 / 1.73 on 5Dimes

MLB - 967 Los Angeles Angels @ 968 Toronto Blue Jays

(Starting Pitchers: E. Santana vs C. Villanueva)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 967/968 Over 9.5 (w/ E. Santana & C. Villanueva) @ -120 / 1.83 on 5Dimes

MLB - 969 Cleveland Indians @ 970 Baltimore Orioles

(Starting Pitchers: D. Lowe vs J. Arrieta)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 969/970 Over 9.5 (w/ D. Lowe & J. Arrieta) @ -115 / 1.87 on 5Dimes

MLB - 977 Kansas City Royals @ 978 Minnesota Twins

(Starting Pitchers: L. Mendonza vs B. Duensing)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 978 Minnesota Twins ML (w/ B. Duensing) @ -120 / 1.83 on 5Dimes

WNBA Premium Card 06/29

WNBA - 653 Atlanta Dream @ 954 Tulsa Shock

Projected line: 161 points | Atlanta by 4 points

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 653/654 Over 156 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 654 Tulsa Shock (+7) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

WNBA - 655 Phoenix Mercury @ 656 Chicago Sky

Projected line: 162 points

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 655/656 Over 157 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

MLB Premium Card 06/28

MLB - 901 Pittsburgh Pirates @ 902 Philadelphia Phillies

(Starting Pitchers: AJ Burnett vs K. Kendrick)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 901 Pittsburgh Pirates (w/ AJ Burnett) @ -112 / 1.89 on 5Dimes

MLB - 903 Washington Nationals @ 904 Colorado Rockies

(Starting Pitchers: E. Jackson vs J. Outman)

***SPLIT THE WAGER***

Pick: 2 units on 903 Washington Nationals ML (w/ E. Jackson) @ -145 / 1.69 on Betonline

Pick: 1 unit on 903 Washington Nationals RL -1.5 (w/ E. Jackson) @ +110 / 2.10 on 5Dimes

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 903/904 Over 11 (w/ E. Jackson & J. Outman) @ -119 / 1.84 on Pinnacle

MLB - 905 Arizona Diamondbacks @ 906 Atlanta Braves

(Starting Pitchers: T. Bauer vs J. Jurrjens)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 905 Arizona Diamondbacks ML (w/ T. Bauer) @ +108 / 2.08 on Betonline

MLB - 911 Cincinnati Reds @ 912 San Francisco Giants

(Starting Pitchers: J. Cueto vs M. Bumgarner)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 912 San Francisco Giants ML (w/ M. Bumgarner) @ -119 / 1.84 on 5Dimes

MLB - 913 Los Angeles Angels @ 914 Toronto Blue Jays

(Starting Pitchers: D. Haren vs B. Cecil)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 913 Los Angeles Angels ML (w/ D. Haren) @ -135 / 1.74 on 5Dimes

MLB - 919 Detroit Tigers @ 920 Tampa Bay Rays

(Starting Pitchers: M. Scherzer vs J. Shields)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 919 Detroit Tigers ML (w/ M. Scherzer) @ +110 / 2.10 on 5Dimes

MLB - 921 Oakland Athetics @ 922 Texas Rangers

(Starting Pitchers: T. Ross vs S. Feldman)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 921/922 Over 11 (w/ T. Ross & S. Feldman) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bookmaker

WNBA Premium Card 06/28

WNBA - 601 LA Sparks @ 602 San Antonio Silver Stars

Projected line: 156 points | LA Sparks by 3 points 1ST QUARTER

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

The Sparks weren’t ready to play against Tulsa. They had easily defeated them a couple of days before so they overlook Tulsa and got spanked! They couldn’t answer the full court pressure from Tulsa and LA had an extraordinary 16 turnovers for 21 Tulsa points in the first half and the Shock had also 22 fastbreak points! The combination of lack of effort and the proper mindset to play on the road killed the Sparks.

Now they have the chance to bounce back and at the same time to get some revenge from the Silver Stars who already beat them twice this season. The last two losses from the Sparks were due to some sloppy stars, as they lost both first quarters in those games by a combined 17 points! For today I expect them to bring some energy from the start, this will be their 4th game in seven days, so I don’t know if they will be able to sustain the energy throughout the game and that’s why I like them for a strong start.

The first 2 h2h games between these two teams were played in a relatively slow pace with a 74.4 and 76.7 pace factor. Note that the Sparks have an average pace factor of 79.9, so it is quite evident that San Antonio wants to slow down the pace against them. After allowing for the third consecutive time their opponents to reach the 90-points mark, I expect a more concentrated effort from the Sparks on the defensive end. My projections for this contest are 156 points so we have some value with the Under and so, I'll take the Under in here in a Double Dime Play. As I believe on a very strong start from the Sparks, I'll take them to be leading after the 1st quarter as well. 

Note: I believe only 5Dimes had the odds for the 1st Quarter, but soon other sportsbooks will open lines as well!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 601/602 Under 162.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 601 Los Angeles Sparks FIRST QUARTER ML @ +120 / 2.20 on 5Dimes

Soccer Euro 2012 Premium Play 06/28: Germany vs Italy

Euro 2012 - Semi Final - Germany vs Italy

***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***

NOTE: Match to be Played next Thursday!

In my opinion, this German team is the best team of the tournament and even though I’m rooting for my home team Portugal, I think that Germany will win EURO 2012.

Their “motor” is impressive and it is a tough task to compete against them for the full 90 minutes. They also have an incredible depth especially on the front as no other team would have done what they did against Greece and still dominate the game – they changed their whole trio on the front, the same trio that produced 5 goals in the first 3 games!

In normal conditions I would give Germany the physical edge. They look fresher and they are unquestionable more athletic than the Italians, but for this contest, Germany had 2 more days to rest and prepare this game and if that wasn't enough, Italy's game against England went to overtime and then a penalty shootout, so the physical edge for Germany will be even bigger.

Italy totally outclassed England in the quarter finals and they deserved to win the game in regular time. England’s tactic was so obsolete that the Italians’ 4-4-2 diamond formation completely owned them. England played only with two interior midfielders in Gerrard and Parker against the 4 Italians player from the midfield, so England had to react: James Milner was drawn inside and played close to Daniele De Rossi, while Ashley Young also ended up in a very central position near Claudio Marchisio.  While Milner could perform such role, Young's performance was a disaster. With Italy having the numeric advantage in the midfield, both Gerrard and Parker had to make such effort that Gerrard started suffering from cramps with just 70 minutes played!

Like I’ve said, Andrea Pirlo was the X factor of this contest and England’s strategy was to send Rooney to pick him up. That worked fine in the early stages of the game but that didn’t last long, as Rooney’s tactical indiscipline was pivotal in my opinion! Once Pirlo got some freedom on the field, he completely dominated the game. A quick stat that proves my points: Pirlo completed 117 passes, more than Cole, Gerrard and Johnson (England's top 3 outfield passers) combined. They completed 104 between them! Plus Andrea Pirlo attempted 133 passes, that's19 more than England's 4 starting midfielders. He completed the same amount as they attempted: 114.

However, Germany is on another level than England…

By playing their midfield line of 4 players, so close between them, England didn’t have any width and depth on wing. This is the Italians' biggest weakness and England couldn’t take advantage of it. I mean, the biggest threat that England offered was from some a couple of runs by their right back Glenn Johnson. On the other side, Germany plays a dynamic 4-3-3 formation built to stretch the field and play essentiality from the wings, so they will take full advantage from Italy’s biggest weakness.

Mesut Ozil or even Thomas Muller (who is a great tactical player) will likely pick up Andrea Pirlo once he advances in the field and this will neutralize almost any potential danger that Italy is capable of creating.

Germany plays on a fast pace, with 1-2 touches on the ball and they use all the width in the field. In the group stages, Spain was about -125 / 1.80 in their game against Italy. We all know that Spain almost exclusively uses the center of the midfield on their offensive plays, so it was “easier” for Italy to defend when compared to Germany’s style of playing. Currently I’m rating Germany above Spain, so it is quite understandable the fact that we have some tremendous value with Germany at this current lines of -105 / 1.952. Therefore, I'll be taking Germany to win on this contest on a Triple Dime Play!

Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on Germany ML @ -105 / 1.952 on Pinnacle

WNBA 06/28 Free Premium Play: LA Sparks @ San Antonio Silver Stars

WNBA - 601 LA Sparks @ 602 San Antonio Silver Stars

Projected line: LA Sparks by 3 points 1ST QUARTER

The Sparks weren’t ready to play against Tulsa. They had easily defeated them a couple of days before so they overlook Tulsa and got spanked! They couldn’t answer the full court pressure from Tulsa and LA had an extraordinary 16 turnovers for 21 Tulsa points in the first half and the Shock had also 22 fastbreak points! The combination of lack of effort and the proper mindset to play on the road killed the Sparks.

Now they have the chance to bounce back and at the same time to get some revenge from the Silver Stars who already beat them twice this season. The last two losses from the Sparks were due to some sloppy stars, as they lost both first quarters in those games by a combined 17 points! For today I expect them to bring some energy from the start, this will be their 4th game in seven days, so I don’t know if they will be able to sustain the energy throughout the game and that’s why I like them for a strong start.

Note: I believe only 5Dimes had the odds for the 1st Quarter, but soon other sportsbooks will open lines as well!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 601 Los Angeles Sparks FIRST QUARTER ML @ +120 / 2.20 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Card 06/27

MLB - 971 Toronto Blue Jays @ 972 Boston Red Sox

(Starting Pitchers: R. Romero vs J. Lester)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 972 Boston Red Sox ML (w/ J. Lester) @ -143 / 1.70 on Bookmaker

MLB - 953 New York Mets @ 954 Chicago Cubs

(Starting Pitchers: J. Niese vs J. Samardzija)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 953 New York Mets ML (w/ J. Niese) @ -111 / 1.90 on 5Dimes

MLB - 955 Los Angeles Dodgers @ 956 San Francisco Giants

(Starting Pitchers: C. Billingsley vs T. Lincecum)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 956 San Francisco Giants ML (T. Lincecum) @ -145 / 1.69 on Bookmaker

MLB - 959 Arizona Diamondbacks @ 960 Atlanta Braves

(Starting Pitchers: T. Cahill vs T. Hanson)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 959 Arizona Diamondbacks ML (w/ T. Cahill) @ +121 / 2.21 on 5Dimes

MLB - 961 St Louis Cardinals @ 962 Miami Marlins

(Starting Pitchers: J. Kelly vs A. Sanchez)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 962 Miami Marlins ML (w/ A. Sanchez) @ -130 / 1.77 on Betonline

MLB - 963 San Diego Padres @ 964 Houston Astros

(Starting Pitchers: C. Richard vs L. Harrell)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 963 San Diego Padres ML (w/ C. Richard) @ -105 / 1.95 on Bookmaker

MLB - 977 Los Angeles Angels @ 978 Baltimore Orioles

(Starting Pitchers: J. Weaver vs J. Hammel)

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 977 Los Angeles Angels ML (w/ J. Weaver) @ -120 / 1.83 on 5Dimes

WNBA Premium Card 06/27

WNBA - 651 Indiana Fever @ 652 Chicago Sky

Projected line: 140 points | Indiana by 2 points

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 651/652 Under 144,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 651 Indiana Fever (+2) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Soccer Euro 2012 Free Premium Play 06/27: Portugal vs Spain

Euro 2012 - Semi Final - Portugal vs Spain

Spain right now is listed about +100 / 2.00 on Pinnacle Sports to win this contest, so the oddmakers are giving 50% of chances for them to defeat Portugal in regular time in the first semi final of the Euro 2012. Well, I have Spain with 40% of chances, so it is easy for me to say that we have some immediate value with Portugal +0.5 @ -104 / 1.962, because according to my projected odds, Portugal +0.5 should have been listed @ -150 / 1.67!

Spain’s playing style has been making them unbeatable since 2006 in the knock out stages and in this competition they have been playing their typical “tiki taka” style, but with less width than in the last versions of this team. By using Fabregas as a “false 9”, this gives Spain one more man to exchange the ball, but they lost some verticality on their game as well.

So far in this competition, all teams that have faced Spain (well, we can exclude the Republic of Ireland in here) changed their tactic, approach and even their identity just to match Spain’s style. France’s lineup against them was absurd! The French national coach Laurent Blanc was so obsessed to put more men on the midfield to hold Spain’s unit that France lost their identity. The most ridiculous move was to put two right backs at the same time (Reveillere and Debuchy) in order to stop Spain’s most dynamic side, just to watch Spain score their first goal by their side in a Jordi Alba run throughout the left line. 

Teams are changing their dynamic/tactic just to face Spain and they will obviously die with them. It is almost impossible to prepare a new tactic in 3 or 4 days against a team that has played in the same way for the last 4 years!

So what the Portuguese team will change for this contest? Well, nothing!

Portugal is pretty comfortable to play without the ball, as you can check on the Euro 2012 team stats of ball possession:

#1 Spain w/ 61%
#2 Germany w/ 57%
#4 Italy w/ 54%

...
#10 Portugal w/ 46%

As you can see, from all the 4 teams that have qualified for the semi finals, Portugal is actually the only team that in average doesn't have more ball possession than their opponents with just 46% of ball possession. This is pure strategy from the Portuguese side and for today, this won’t be different!

Portugal knows how to occupy the gaps without the ball, they are well coordinated and they have the tools to make some damage to the Spain’s weakest link: their right sided defense! Arbeloa is far from being a top defender and the right-center back Gerrard Pique isn’t in the best shape on this tournament. I’ve already mentioned that Portugal left side unit (Cristiano Ronaldo and Coentrao) is the best unit in this tournament, so I expect Portugal to make some serious damage today.

Portugal had 2 more days to rest than Spain and the truth is that Spain’s playing style is being often called “boring” because especially in this tournament there are some players who are completely fatigued. The most visible ones are Pique, Xavi and Busquets, so I expect some physical edge for Portugal, where only Raul Meireles looks to be tired from a long season. 

These two teams know perfectly well each other. In the 2010 World Cup 2010, they faced each other in the R16 and I took Portugal +0,5 at the time with -116 / 1.86 odds. Spain won the game by 1-0, but with a goal that should have been disalowed due to offside. That Spanish team in my opinion back in 2010 was better than the current one, while there is no doubt that Portugal is a much better team than the one that played in 2010 against Spain. They have now better chemistry and finally Ronaldo, the best player in this tournament, is performing at his best level. Therefore, I expect Portugal to give Spain a huge fight and at least avoid losing on regular time. So, I'll take Portugal on the spread today. I also believe Portugal will be able to cause a lot of problems to the Spanish's defense throughout the whole game and so, I'll also take Portugal to score today on a small bet.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Portugal (+0,5) @ -104 / 1.962 on Pinnacle

Pick: 1 unit on Portugal Team Total Over 0,5 @ -134 / 1.746 on Pinnacle

WNBA Premium Card 06/26

NBA - 601 Indiana Fever @ 602 Atlanta Dream

Projected line: 152 points | Indiana by 1

NOTE: EARLY GAME!!!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 601 Indiana Fever (+2.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 601/602 Under 156.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

WNBA - 603 Seattle Storm @ 604 Washington Mystics

Projected line: 141 points

This is a home-home series and in the first contest last Sunday, the Storm easily dismantled the Mystics at home with a 72-55 win. I had the Under in that game (on a line of 138.5 points) and at the break, the game had only 51 points scored! It was the slowest paced game of the season so far with a pace factor of 63.30 and this shouldn’t surprise anyone because it involved the two slowest paced teams in the league.

For today, I expect another relatively slow paced contest, but still with a faster tempo than the last game. Washington was utterly passive in that game! They had a season low of 10 free throws attempted and for the first time this season, they didn’t manage to score a single fastbreak point and they also established a season low of 18 points in the paint. Without any kind of aggression from the Mystics, it was easy for the Storm to shut them down. Scoring 20 points in the first half was awful and shooting 27% FG didn’t help at all, so for tonight I expect Washington to be aggressive since the start.

Seattle is vastly improved when compared to the early stages of the season and it was just the fact that their key players are finally playing at their best. After averaging a mediocre 90.3 offensive ratings in the first 8 games of the season, the Storm has now averaged 109.3 offrates in their last 4 games!

Finally, this will be an ESPN game, so I expect the referees to favor the offense instead of the defense. I don’t think the WNBA would gain anything if a 31-20 first half outcome happens again, so I expect the referees to call some fouls tonight. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 603/604 Over 136,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

MLB Premium Card 06/26

MLB - 901 Pittsburgh Pirates @ 902 Philadelphia Phillies

(Starting Pitchers: E. Bedard vs V. Worley)

Worley has been having a lot of bad luck, as Philadelphia's hitting hasn't been helping him. Even though he has only allowed 0, 1 and 2 ER on his last 3 starts, the Phillies scored just 5 runs in the total of those three games and naturally Worley couldn't get the win. However, looking at the fact that the Pirates are dead last in the league on hitting against RHP's with a subpar .647 OPS mark, I expect Worley to have a good outing, as he has also only allowed one home run on his last 4 starts, so I believe we will watch a quality outing from him tonight.

On the other hand, Bedard has struggled on the road this season with a 2-5 W/L and 6.27 ERA. He has allowed a .260 BA mark against righties and the Phillies will be loaded with RH batters for tonight, as only Fontenont is a LH hitter. Philadelphia's offense is the 2nd best in K%'s with just 16.6%, so they will make Bedard work hard tonight. Therefore, I have my fair line for this contest on PHI at -180 and so we have enough edge to take the Phillies today.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 902 Philadelphia Phillies ML (w/ V. Worley) @ -141 / 1.71 on Betonline

MLB - 909 New York Mets @ 910 Chicago Cubs

(Starting Pitchers: D. Gee vs R. Wells)

NOTE: No writeup for this contest

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 909 New York Mets ML (w/ D. Gee) @ -115 / 1.87 on 5Dimes

MLB - 919 Cleveland Indians @ 920 New York Yankees

(Starting Pitchers: J. Masterson vs P. Hughes)

NOTE: No writeup for this contest

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 919 Cleveland Indians ML (w/ J. Masterson) @ +132 / 2.32 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Card 06/25

MLB - 953 Milwaukee Brewers @ 954 Cincinnati Reds

(Starting Pitchers: Y. Gallardo vs M. Latos)

Mat Latos has been ultra inconsistent all season long by alternating some good outings with truly horrendous ones. That was the case in his last 2 starts against the Indians. He dominated them the first time just to be pounded the second time by allowing 3 HR-s in just 4 innings of work. Latos is simply great against right handed batters by allowing .204 BA and .386 SLG, but he has been awful against left handed batters by allowing .319 BA and .604 SLG! No wonder the Indians used a lineup full of lefties to pound him once they faced him a second time.

However, the Brewers lineup is almost exclusively constituted by RH batters, so Latos have some room to breathe tonight. On the Brewers' lineup for tonight, only Aoki and Morgan are LH batters, so I like the chances for Latos to have a good outing tonight. On the other hand, Gallardo is coming from three straight quality starts, but he is inconsistent on the road and the Reds are batting .335 against him. Votto (.348 BA), Bruce (.450 BA), Ludwich (.308 BA) and Phillips (.286 BA) are primed for a good game. 

Therefore, I'll be taking the Reds for a good home win today.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 954 Cincinnati Reds ML (w/ M. Latos) @ -126 / 1.79 on 5Dimes

MLB - 957 New York Mets @ 958 Chicago Cubs

(Starting Pitchers: J. Santana vs T. Wood)

NOTE: No writeup for this contest

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 957 New York Mets ML (w/ J. Santana) @ -126 / 1.79 on 5Dimes

MLB - 959 San Diego Padres @ 960 Houston Astros

(Starting Pitchers: R. Ohlendorf vs W. Rodriguez)

NOTE: No writeup for this contest

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 959 San Diego Padres ML (w/ R. Ohlendorf) @ +122 / 2.22 on Betonline

MLB - 963 Los Angeles Dodgers @ 964 San Francisco Giants

(Starting Pitchers: N. Eovaldi vs B. Zito)

NOTE: No writeup for this contest

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 963 Los Angeles Dodgers ML (w/ N. Eovaldi) @ -103 / 1.97 on Betonline

MLB - 965 Cleveland Indians @ 966 New York Yankees

(Starting Pitchers: J. Tomlin vs H. Kuroda)

I think this is a good spot to fade the Yankees after their series against the Mets. All the three contests were close games that demanded the best of the Yankees players, so a mental letdown is quite expected to happen tonight in my opinion.

The Indians’ starter Josh Tomlin is a ground ball SP that uses only his fastball to a 37.9% rate – a good receipt to beat the Yankees who loves to pound fly ball pitchers with a heavy dose of fastballs. Somehow, this helps us to understand how Tomlin was able to shut down the powerful Yankees lineup in 2 of his 3 starts against them allowing just 1 and 2 Earned Runs. A relatively disinterested Yankees lineup tonight will certainly help Tomlin.

On the other side, Kuroda has been a consistent pitcher for the Yankees, but his split stats are quite contrarian in terms of pitching to LH or RH batters. Righties are batting .214 BA (or .383 SLG) against him, but Lefties batters are batting .284 BA (.461 SLG)! That bodes well for a Indians lineup that have plenty of Lefties batters. I've just checked their lineup for tonight and Choo, Kipnis, Brantley, Kotchman, Damon, Hannahan and Chisenhall are all left handed batters, so Kuroda will struggle a bit tonight.

This contest will be a close battle and I believe we have some edge with the Indians. Therefore, I'll take Cleveland tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 965 Cleveland Indians ML (w/ J. Tomlin) @ +151 / 2.51 on Bookmaker

MLB - 969 Detroit Tigers @ 970 Texas Rangers

(Starting Pitchers: R. Porcello vs J. Grimm)

NOTE: No writeup for this contest

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 969/970 Over 11 (w/ R. Porcello & J. Grimm) @ +105 / 2.05 on 5Dimes

WNBA Premium Card 06/24

WNBA - 651 Atlanta Dream @ 652 New York Liberty

Projected line: 144 points

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 651/652 Under 148 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 653 Washington Mystics @ 654 Seattle Storm

Projected line: 134 points

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 653/654 Under 138.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

MLB Free Premium Card 06/24

MLB - 913 Washington Nationals @ 914 Baltimore Orioles

(Starting Pitchers: R. Detwiler vs J. Arrieta)

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 914 Baltimore Orioles ML (w/ J. Arrieta) @ -126 / 1.79 on 5Dimes

MLB - 917 Cleveland Indians @ 918 Houston Astros

(Starting Pitchers: D. Lowe vs J. Happ)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 918 Houston Astros ML (w/ J. Happ) @ -118 / 1.85 on 5Dimes

MLB - 919 St Louis Cardinals @ 920 Kansas City Royals

(Starting Pitchers: L. Lynn vs J. Sanchez)

***SPLIT THE WAGER***

Pick: 2 units on 919 St Louis Cardinals ML (w/ L. Lynn) @ -145 / 1.69 on Betonline

Pick: 1 unit on 919 St Louis Cardinals RL -1.5 (w/ L. Lynn) @ +115 / 2.15 on 5Dimes

MLB - 921 Milwaukee Brewers @ 922 Chicago White Sox

(Starting Pitchers: M. Fiers vs J. Quintana)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 921 Milwaukee Brewers ML (w/ M. Fiers) @ +117 / 2.17 on Bookmaker

MLB - 923 Los Angeles Dodgers @ 924 Los Angeles Angels

(Starting Pitchers: A. Harang vs G. Richards)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 923/924 Over 8 (w/ A. Harang & G. Richards) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bookmaker

MLB - 903 New York Yankees @ 904 New York Mets

(Starting Pitchers: CC Sabathia vs R. Dickey)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 903 New York Yankees ML (w/ CC Sabathia) @ -124 / 1.81 on 5Dimes

MLB - 929 Colorado Rockies @ 930 Texas Rangers

(Starting Pitchers: A. White vs M. Harrison)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 930 Texas Rangers RL -1.5 (w/ M. Harrison) @ -135 / 1.74 on Bookmaker

Soccer Euro 2012 Free Premium Play 06/24: England vs Italy

Euro 2012 - Quarter Final - England vs Italy

***SPLIT THE WAGER***

After three one-sided quarter-finals with all the three games being decided in the regular time, I believe this contest will be much tighter and the oddmakers are basically saying this exactly. 

However, I really think that we have some value with the draw, as according to my estimations I have the Draw with a 45% chance, England 30% and Italy with 25% of chances to win. England is struggling to create chances in build up plays, but they are a good tactical team with a balanced defensive positioning. They now have Wayne Rooney back on the front hoping that he can create something useful for them.

I’ve just checked the Italian lineup and they will use a 4-4-2 formation while using a diamond formation in the midfield. This kind of lineup gave some problems to Italy on their friendly matches prior to this tournament because by using 4 central midfielders, Italy has some problems to cover the wings. Russia torched them and that promptly forced Italy to chance their formation for this tournament. Obviously, England doesn’t have the same talent on the wings that Russia has, but they still have some edge on this department.

The X factor for this contest will be Andrea Pirlo’s influence on the game. Scott Parker will likely be close to him or even Rooney/Wellbeck will drop back on his position to guard Pirlo. The problem is that Pirlo has played all minutes for Italy in the group stage (3 x 90min) and it was quite evident that he lacks the proper stamina to dominate the game the whole 90 minutes, so I give some edge to England on the latter moments of the game.

I expect a defensive struggle battle with few chances to score. Both teams have terrific goalkeepers and I wouldn’t be surprised in a 0-0 full time draw. Therefore, I'll take the Draw on this contest! Split the wager between Half Time Draw and Full Time Draw. As I expect little to none scoring chances on this game, I'll also take the Under in here. Looking, as I believe England has a small edge over Italy, I'll also take England PK on a small bet.

Pick: 1 unit on England PK @ +100 / 2.00 on Pinnacle

Pick: 1,5 units on Half Time Draw @ -106 / 1.943 on Pinnacle

Pick: 1,5 units on Full Time Draw @ +200 / 3.00 on Pinnacle

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Under 2 Goals @ -111 / 1.901 on Pinnacle

MLB Free Premium Card 06/23

MLB - 953 Toronto Blue Jays @ 954 Miami Marlins

(Starting Pitchers: B. Cecil vs J. Johnson)

***SPLIT THE WAGER***

Pick: 2 units on 954 Miami Marlins ML (w/ J. Johnson) @ -145 / 1.69 on Betonline

Pick: 1 unit on 954 Miami Marlins RL -1.5 (w/ J. Johnson) @ +150 / 2.50 on Bookmaker

MLB - 967 New York Yankees @ 968 New York Mets

(Starting Pitchers: I. Nova vs C. Young)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 967 New York Yankees ML (w/ I. Nova) @ -149 / 1.67 on Betonline

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 967 New York Yankees Over 4.5 Runs @ -135 / 1.741 on Pinnacle

MLB - 973 Los Angeles Dodgers @ 974 Los Angeles Angels

(Starting Pitchers: C. Capuano vs E. Santana)

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY - SPLIT THE WAGER***

Pick: 3 units on 974 Los Angeles Angels ML (w/ E. Santana) @ -159 / 1.63 on Betonline

Pick: 1 unit on 974 Los Angeles Angels RL -1.5 (w/ E. Santana) @ +140 / 2.40 on 5Dimes

MLB - 977 San Francisco Giants @ 978 Oakland Athletics

(Starting Pitchers: M. Bumgarner vs T. Ross)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 977 San Francisco Giants ML (w/ M. Bumgarner) @ -134 / 1.75 on 5Dimes

MLB - 979 Seattle Mariners @ 980 San Diego Padres

(Starting Pitchers: F. Hernandez vs J. Marquis)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 979 Seattle Mariners ML (w/ F. Hernandez) @ -128 / 1.78 on 5Dimes

WNBA Premium Card 06/23

WNBA - 601 Chicago Sky @ 602 Minnesota Lynx

Projected line: 139 points

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

NOTE: EARLY GAME!!!

For this contest, we have the two best defensive teams in the league (CHI #1 with 93.10 defensive rates and MIN #2 with 93.98) going head to head. They are as well the two best rebounding teams by a far margin and they don’t allow points in the paint (MIN #1 & CHI #4). Chicago has the best defensive interior player in the league in Sylvia Fowles, while Minnesota has the best frontline unit. I expect both teams to do a good defensive job down low and limit the second chance points.

The biggest difference between these two teams is on the backcourt. Chicago has struggled with turnovers and they will be without their best backcourt player Prince for some weeks. Without a dominant outside force, Minnesota can focus their attention on Fowles and they will easily hold her back and that’s why Chicago is a 15 pts underdog in this contest. Both teams play in a pace below the average in the league, so this won’t be a fast track meat. Having said that, I expect Minnesota to win today behind a strong defensive performance. We don’t have much value on Minnesota, but the Under offers a great value in my opinion. Therefore, I'll take the Under in here in a Double Dime Play!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 601/602 Under 146 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

WNBA - 603 Los Angeles Sparks @ 604 Phoenix Mercury

Projected line: LA Sparks by 15 points

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 603 Los Angeles Sparks (-11) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

WNBA - 605 Indiana Fever @ 606 Tulsa Shock

Projected line: 161 points

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 605/606 Over 156 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

Soccer Euro 2012 Free Premium Play 06/23: Spain vs France

Euro 2012 - Quarter Final - Spain vs France

In my opinion, the lineups of both teams will make them lack creativity and become highly predictable in the front. Spain will get back to their first lineup of the tournament, with Fabregas being a false striker, playing instead of Torres in the front. With this lineup, they lose depth on the field, even though they will squash France in terms of ball possession. Still, they will lose a lot of verticality on their game and that was clear in their game against Italy, where they barely created chances with this lineup. 

With Spain leading the competition in terms of ball possession with 63% (France is 3# by the way), Laurent Blanc is worrying too much with this factor by using three defensive players in the midfield at the same time, with Malouda being completely out of form right now. Benzema is playing too far from the area, while France will be limited to the individual actions of Ribery today. That's too little for the French side to be able to cause any problems to Spain's defense.

I expect a game with the ball being loads of time in the midfield and with a tremendous lack of speed. With these two lineups, I wouldn't be even surprised if this game ends with a 0-0 draw in regular time. Therefore, I'll take the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Under 2 Goals @ -101 / 1.99 on Pinnacle

WNBA Premium Play 06/22

WNBA - 651 San Antonio Silver Stars @ 652 Seattle Storm

Projected line: 144 points

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 651/652 Over 140 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

MLB Free Premium Card 06/22

MLB - 907 Tampa Bay Rays @ 908 Philadelphia Phillies

(Starting Pitchers: J. Shields vs C. Lee)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 908 Philadelphia Phillies ML (w/ C. Lee) @ -128 / 1.78 on 5Dimes

MLB - 913 Minnesota Twins @ 914 Cincinnati Reds 

(Starting Pitchers: N. Blackburn vs H. Bailey)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 914 Cincinnati Reds RL -1.5 (w/ H. Bailey) @ +120 / 2.20 on 5Dimes

MLB - 921 Milwaukee Brewers @ 922 Chicago White Sox

(Starting Pitchers: Z. Greinke vs C. Sale)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 921 Milwaukee Brewers ML (w/ Z. Greinke) @ +116 / 2.16 on 5Dimes

MLB - 927 San Francisco Giants @ 928 Oakland Athletics

(Starting Pitchers: T. Lincecum vs J. Parker)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 927 San Francisco Giants ML (w/ T. Lincecum) @ +102 / 2.02 on Betonline

Soccer Euro 2012 Free Premium Play 06/22: Germany vs Greece

Euro 2012 - Quarter Final - Germany vs Greece

First of all, I have a tremendous respect for the Greek team and their fighting spirit. They upset the world of soccer in by 2004 winning the EURO championship and all the politic and financial problems that currently the country is battling makes today’s game even more appellative for the players to have a “die in the field” mindset taking in account that it will be against Germany. 

However in the field there will be a complete mismatch favoring Germany in my opinion. I’ve already told yesterday that there was a considerable gap in quality between the Group A teams and the Group B teams that was confirmed by the Portuguese win over Czech Republic. Sure that the final score was “only” 1-0, but for those who watched the game, it was a complete and total domination by the Portuguese team.

For today, I expect Greece to have a complete defensive mindset with all 11 men behind their own midfield while trying to hold a 0-0 draw. On the offensive end, I really don’t expect anything from Greece. They are usually dangerous on set pieces plays, but their best player and the one who is charge of them Karagounis is suspended for today. So, it will basically be the capacity of Greece on the defensive end that will dictate the outcome of the game and in my opinion they are far from being a great defensive team especially when compared to their 2004 team. 

Back in 2004, Zagorakis and the youngsters at the time Katsouranis and Karagounis were masterful in covering the field and gave the Greek defense some pivotal protection. Makos, Maniatis and Katsouranis will be the trio on the center, but this unit not only is incapable to hold the ball, as they don’t have the same tactical discipline required to play against a team like Germany. Sure that they were “strong” enough to hold Russia in their last game, however take note that Russia had 62% of ball possession, attempted 25 shots and had 12 corners and Germany in on another level in terms of offensive efficiency.

Germany is now an improved team that can exchange the ball like Spain usually does, they play fast and off the ball and they have two players at back (Lahm and Hummels) who are capable to go upfront and make some damage.

My biggest concern with them has been their incapacity to create more danger from the wings: Podolski and Muller are out of form in my opinion! I’ve just checked the German starting lineup and what did Joachim Löw do? He benched both Podolski and Muller by giving the starting nod to Reus and Schurrle! These two young players are dynamic, more physically capable and these changes will surprise Greece. The decision to start Klose instead of Gomez was expected because Klose is a better player than Gomez in build up plays and his passing skill will be very useful today. Plus with Gomez it would be “easier” for the Greek defense to defend a more static player.

Even with all the motivation Greece will have for today, I believe Germany is by far the better team and they will prove that on the field today. Therefore, I'll take the German team on the spread in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Germany (-1.25) @ -124 / 1.806 on Pinnacle

WNBA Premium Card 06/21

WNBA - 601 Connecticut Sun @ 602 Indiana Fever

Projected line: 154 points

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 601/602 Under 162 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

WNBA - 603 New York Liberty @ 604 Minnesota Lynx

Projected line: Minnesota by 18 points

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 604 Minnesota Lynx (-14) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

MLB Free Premium Card 06/21

MLB - 953 St. Louis Cardinals @ 954 Detroit Tigers

(Starting Pitchers: K. Lohse vs J. Turner)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Team Total 954 Detroit Tigers Over 4.5 @ -136 / 1.735 on Pinnacle

MLB - 957 Tampa Bay Rays @ 958 Washington Nationals

(Starting Pitchers: M. Moore vs G. Gonzalez)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 957 Tampa Bay Rays ML (w/ M. Moore) @ +110 / 2.10 on Bookmaker

MLB - 959 Minnesota Twins @ 960 Pittsburgh Pirates

(Starting Pitchers: L. Hendriks vs J. McDonald)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 960 Pittsburgh Pirates ML (w/ J. McDonald) @ -149 / 1.67 on 5Dimes

NBA 06/21 Premium Play: Oklahoma City Thunder @ Miami Heat

NBA - 509 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 510 Miami Heat

Projected line: 190 points

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509/510 Under 194 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Soccer Euro 2012 Free Premium Play 06/21: Portugal vs Czech Republic

Euro 2012 - Quarter Finals - Portugal vs Czech Republic

I think there is a considerable gap of quality between these two teams. Although this is a matchup between the winner of group A against the second placed in group B note that both teams ended up the group stage with 6 points, besides the fact that there is a huge difference: the quality of the opponents! 

Czech Republic faced Russia who is ranked #13 in the FIFA World Ranking, then they faced the #15 Greece and finally they defeated the host Poland who is ranked at #62! On the other hand, the Portuguese team was placed on the “group of death” for some reason because Germany (#3), Netherlands (#4) and Denmark (#9) are all in the top 10, so the path for this quarter finals contest was completely different, with Portugal having a much tougher task to do during the group stage.

In terms of matchups analysis, I think that Portugal has some substantial advantages all over the field. The right side of the Czech Republic is their most dangerous weapon with Gebre Selassie and Jiracek doing some nice combinations and run over the field. The problem is that this side will be limited today because they will face Cristiano Ronaldo and Fabio Coentrao. If they keep advancing on the field like they did in the last 2 games, then the Portuguese left wing will have space and we all know that this is likely to be the best left side in the competition. I don’t think this is going to happen because these two Czech’s players will be more conservative today, but this will limit Czech Republic’s offense that is already limited without Rosicky. 

Czech Republic was able to bounce back after a terrible defeat against Russia in the inaugural game. The key was for that was inserting Tomáš Hübschman in the midfield to play alongside with Václav Pilař. Then, a third midfielder would join them to control the middle of the pitch, with Rosicky being the first choice, but now due to injury it's Daniel Kolář who is playing on this area. That worked well against a slow footed Greek midfield and against Poland who lacks creativity on their midfield unit. But this won’t work today against Portugal and their dynamic trio in the midfield constituted by Moutinho, Meireles and Veloso. 

Portugal has a great defensive unit and with the edge on the midfield, I expect them to advance to the semi finals today with a comfortable win over Czech Republic.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Portugal ML @ -134 / 1.746 on Pinnacle

WNBA Premium Card 06/20

WNBA - 651 Washington Mystics @ 652 Phoenix Mercury

Projected line: 158 points | Washington by 6 points

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 651/652 Over 153.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 651 Washington Mystics (-2,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

MLB Free Premium Card 06/20

MLB - 905 Kansas City Royals @ 906 Houston Astros

(Starting Pitchers: B. Chen vs J. Lyles)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 905 Kansas City Royals ML (w/ B. Chen) @ -121 / 1.83 on 5Dimes

MLB - 907 Toronto Blue Jays @ 908 Milwaukee Brewers

(Starting Pitchers: J. Carrenco vs Y. Gallardo)

***SPLIT THE WAGER***

Pick: 2 units on 908 Milwaukee Brewers ML (w/ Y. Gallardo) @ -151 / 1.66 on Betonline

Pick: 1 units on 908 Milwaukee Brewers RL -1.5 (w/ Y. Gallardo) @ +135 / 2.35 on 5Dimes

MLB - 909 Seattle Mariners @ 910 Arizona Diamondbacks

(Starting Pitchers: J. Vargas vs T. Cahill)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 910 Arizona Diamondbacks RL -1.5 (w/ T. Cahill) @ +120 / 2.20 on 5Dimes

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 910 Arizona Diamondbacks Over 4.5 Runs @ -104 / 1.962 on Pinnacle

MLB - 913 St Louis Cardinals @ 914 Detroit Tigers

(Starting Pitchers: J. Westbrook vs R. Porcello)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 913/914 Over 10.5 (w/ J. Westbrook & R. Porcello) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

MLB - 921 Baltimore Orioles @ 922 New York Mets

(Starting Pitchers: B. Matusz vs D. Gee)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 921/922 Over 9 (w/ B. Matusz & D. Gee) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

MLB - 923 Miami Marlins @ 924 Boston Red Sox

(Starting Pitchers: R. Nolasco vs F. Doubront)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 924 Boston Red Sox Over 5.5 Runs @ -108 / 1.926 on Pinnacle

NBA 06/19 Premium Play: Oklahoma City Thunder @ Miami Heat

NBA - 507 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 508 Miami Heat

Projected line: 188 points | Miami by 1 point

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

As expected, Miami's defense had the same gameplan in Game 3 that they had had in Game 2 and it worked again. After having an offensive rating of 109.3 in game 2, OKC's offense regressed even more in G3 to “just” 97.8 – only the second time in this postseason that they had an offensive rating bellow the 100 pts/poss mark. The key for Miami once again was to protect the rim. After allowing OKC to have a stellar 26-36FG mark at the rim, OKC was held to 15-29 FG in Game 2 and in the last game, OKC was even worse with just 13-27 FG! In 3 games, they went from 72.30% to 51.80% to 48.0%!

By collapsing in the paint, the Heat basically took off the best part of the game of Russell Westbrook and James Harden. Westbrook’s drives to the basket are a key component for OKC's offense and he has been struggling L2 games with 6-13 & 1-6 FG at the rim. About 80% of Harden’s game is to drive left, but the Heat simply hasn’t allowed Harden to go left with some smart traps and double teams. The only way for OKC to have a monster offensive game is to be red hot from the perimeter, but they don’t a good ball movement to generate that many good looks and as a result OKC went 9-26 & 4-18 behind the line in the last two games.

My feeling for tonight’s game is the same that I had in G3: “I think that OKC won’t reach anymore the amazing offensive numbers that they displayed during the postseason”

On the other end, OKC did a better job defensively and it was clear for me that the Heat not only is struggling to knock down jump shots, but they also don’t want to take them. For several times, I saw LeBron James and Dwayne Wade not shooting the ball despite being wide open from +15feet. Not coincidentally, the Heat is shooting 4-16FG (25%) from 10-15 feet and 12-47 FG (25.5%) from 16-23 feet! Miami is just attacking the rim possession after possession! This time they went 23-35 FG at the rim and due to the constant penetration, the Heat grabbed 14 of 41 offensive rebound opportunities and outscored the bigger Thunder on second-chance points! They also attempted 35 free throws (while putting Durant in foul trouble) while hitting 31 of them for a great 88.6% mark.

It will be tough for Miami to have a great offensive performance tonight. Like Miami, OKC will pack the paint to prevent the Heat’s easy points near the basket – they did that more successfully in the second half of the Game 3 and the Heat first field goal was made with more than 6 minutes of action! I don’t know why Serge Ibaka played only 22 minutes in game 3 because his interior presence and shot blocking ability is terrific, but nevertheless OKC had 8 blocks in Game 3! If we add the 5 blocks mark from Miami, we are talking about 13 blocks in one game from both teams – 13 potential field goals were blocked!

Game 3's pace was 86.9, basically the same pace of the first two contests. For tonight, I expect a similar pace and with both teams having problems to generate easy points, I think we will in front of another grind out low scoring game.

Last game was basically a ball game and we should have cashed our play with OKC+4.5. OKC had a better rotation in Game 3, while Lebron and Wade played 44 and 45 minutes. Note that unlike last game, both teams had only one day to rest, so fatigue will be a problem especially for a team that relies their game in driving and attacking the rim. I expect another tight game with OKC having a great chance for an upset. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under on a Double Dime Play and the Thunder on a Single Dime Play tonight.

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 507/508 Under 193.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507 Oklahoma City Thunder (+3,5) @ -115 / 1.87 on Betonline