MLB - 905 Atlanta Braves @ 906 San Diego Padres
(Starting Pitchers: T. Hanson vs E. Stults)
The Braves will start Hanson today and he is coming from a start in San Francisco, where he allowed five runs and seven hits in 4.1 IP, with a 8.31 ERA, 3.32 FIP and 5.36 xFIP. He has struggled on his two starts since his comebacks and he keeps struggling in going deep in the games plus the fact that he keeps walking batters frequently. His best pitch is the slider, but he isn't being able to throw it lately with his normal speed and so, this is another reason why he is struggling lately. The Padres' roster is hitting .262 BA and .868 OPS against him in 65 AB's, so it seems likely that San Diego will be able to cause some damage on him today.
San Diego will start Stults and he is coming from a shutout in Arizona, where he allowed just three hits in seven innings. He has been alternating some good starts with some terrible ones lately, as the runs allowed on his last six starts shows (0, 5, 1, 0, 3 and 4 ER allowed). He has defeated Atlanta on the road earlier on this month with just one run and five hits allowed in 7.2 IP, however I don't believe he will be able to dominate the Braves once again today. First of all, Atlanta was on a terrible spot for that game, as they were coming from a SNB game in NY against the Mets in the previous night. The surprise effect of facing him for the first time in three years is also gone for today, therefore I expect Atlanta to get revenge over the inconsistent Stults today and make some damage on the Padres' SP for the day.
With both teams sending two starting pitchers with inconsistent results to the mount today, I don't believe they will be able to have similar performances to the other starting pitchers on this series that had quality outings. I expect both SP's to struggle at least a bit today and with both teams being able to score a decent number of runs in here. With the totals line being set so low, I believe we have enough value to take the Over in here and that's what I'm going to do. Take the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 905/906 Over 7 (w/ T. Hanson & E. Stults) @ -120 / 1.83 on 5Dimes
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