Sunday, August 26, 2012

MLB Premium Play 08/26: St Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds


MLB - 951 St Louis Cardinals @ 952 Cincinnati Reds

(Starting Pitchers: A. Wainwright vs H. Bailey)

***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***

With the series tied at 1-1, these two teams will fight today for the win that gives them the victory on this series. For that, the Cardinals will start today their ace Wainwright, who is coming from a complete game against Houston, where he shutout the Astros while allowing just five hits, while striking out 12 batters. He is now back on his best form and after a month of July where he had 2.18 FIP and 2.73 xFIP, he keeps being impressive in August as well, with 1.16 ERA, 2.00 FIP and 2.63 xFIP. He had a few struggles earlier on the season against the Reds when he was still looking for his best form, however looking at this current form and the fact that the Reds' roster is hitting .198 BA and .586 OPS in 131 AB's against him, I believe Wainwright will have another quality outing today.

On the other hand, Cincinnati will start Bailey today, who is coming from an outing in Philadelphia, where he allowed two runs and seven hits in 6.1 innings. Bailey keeps being impressive on the road with a 2.91 ERA and 3.11 FIP, but he definitely struggles much more at home with a 5.42 ERA and 5.63 FIP! Bailey has faced the Cardinals twice previously on this season and while on the first game, he was pounded with 4 earned runs in 5.2 IP, he was very lucky on his second outing against St Louis, with a 1.13 ERA on that game, but with a 4.97 FIP and 4.64 xFIP, in a game where he allowed 9 hits and had just 2 strikeouts, but he still only allowed 1 earned run. And if Wainwright dominates the Reds, the same doesn't happen with Bailey against the Cardinals, as the Cards' roster is hitting .328 BA and .979 OPS against him in 122 AB's. 

After Cincinnati's blowout win yesterday, I expect Wainwright to help the Cardinals bounce back with a dominant performance, while the in-form Cards batters should put Bailey in a lot of trouble today. Therefore, I'll be taking St Louis on this contest. Triple Dime Play!

Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 951 St Louis Cardinals ML (w/ A. Wainwright) @ -130 / 1.77 on Betonline



MLB - 953 Houston Astros @ 954 New York Mets

(Starting Pitchers: L. Harrell vs J. Hefner)

NOTE: No writeup for this play

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 953 Houston Astros ML (w/ L. Harrell) @ +147 / 2.47 on Betonline

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