Wednesday, August 22, 2012

MLB Premium Play 08/21: Colorado Rockies @ New York Mets


MLB - 905 Colorado Rockies @ 906 New York Mets

(Starting Pitchers: J. Chacin vs C. Young)

The Mets will be starting Young tonight and he has been terrible this season, especially at home where he is yet to win at home (0-3 with a 4.88 ERA in five starts). He is coming from an outing against Cincinnati that seems good on paper, but in fact he had a lot of luck, as he walked four batters and eight hits in 5.2 IP for a 3.80 FIP and 7.20 xFIP!

Unlike Dickey, Young is a traditional pitcher, as he throws more than +70% fastballs, so Colorado's hitters will definitely look more comfortable tonight than they were last night against the knucker baller Dickey, especially when the Rockies are a top team in hitting fastballs this season, especially this month where they are the best team in the league by far in squashing fastballs.

With Young having a 5.21 FIP and 5.79 xFIP in August, I believe Colorado will put him in a lot of trouble and so, they should at least score four runs tonight. Therefore, I'll be taking the Rockies to go Over their team total in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 905 Colorado Rockies Team Total Over 3 (w/ C. Young) @ -123 / 1.813 on Pinnacle

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