MLB - 901 Cincinnati Reds @ 902 Philadelphia Phillies
(Starting Pitchers: H. Bailey vs C. Lee)
The Phillies are coming from one of their best offensive games of the season, where they had 15 hits and 12 runs and with every starter having at least one hit. They'll face Bailey today and he is coming from a sequence of four outings where he allowed at least 4 earned runs: 4, 4, 4 and 6 runs. He is definitely struggling right now and he has posted a 9.15 ERA during this stretch in games against the Mets, the Cubs, Pittsburgh and San Diego, four teams who are far from having top offenses. His FIP and xFIP numbers aren't better, so he is definitely struggling this month with a 6.75 ERA, 5.10 FIP and 4.79 xFIP.
Cliff Lee will start for Philadelphia and his only problem has been the homeruns, as he had a 12/0 K/BB ratio against Milwaukee on his last outing. He really needs to limit the homeruns allowed, but the 3 HR he allowed on his last outing were in the Miller Park, the park that saw homeruns this season by a very clear distance. Back at home, I expect Lee to at least have a better performance tonight than the slumping Bailey.
With Philadelphia being in a good offensive moment and with Bailey clearly struggling right now, I believe the Phillies will pound Bailey big time, while Lee should be able to at least limit the damage that the Reds offense may cause to him, especially in comparison with the huge trouble Bailey will be forced into tonight. Therefore, I'll be taking Philadelphia in here.
NOTE: Also available on 5Dimes at -113 / 1.89
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 902 Philadelphia Phillies RL -1 (w/ C. Lee) @ -110 / 1.91 on Pinnacle
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