MLB - 965 Kansas City Royals @ 966 Tampa Bay Rays
(Starting Pitchers: W. Smith vs J. Hellickson)
This is a horrible spot for the Rays, as they are coming home from a series in LA against the Angels that ended yesterday. Because of that, Tampa Bay won't use Longoria and Pena today, making his game even tougher for them. They'll face Will Smith, who started the season in poor fashion, but bounced back by allowing four runs or less in all his last six starts, while those games were against good teams like Oakland, @Baltimore, Texas, @Seattle (twice) and the LA Angels. He may not be an ace, but looking at the terrible spot of Tampa Bay for this contest, I believe he will have another good start today.
On the other hand, Tampa Bay will use Hellickson today and he is coming from throwing 115 pitches in a game where Felix Hernandez had the perfect game. He has struggled in going deep in the game and in fact, his last game in Seattle was the first time in ten games that he reached the 7th inning. His FIP and xFIP are being clearly higher than his ERA, so he seems prone to have some regression soon as well. He is also much worse against LH hitters (5.23 FIP and 5.10 xFIP) and Kansas City will have four LH hitters ready to pound him tonight, especially Alex Gordon and Mike Moustakas.
The Royals are coming from a sweep over the White Sox and they look very confident right now. Looking at Tampa Bay's terrible spot for today and Hellickson's current struggles, I believe the Royals have a good chance of pulling the upset tonight and so, I'll take them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 965 Kansas City Royals ML (w/ W. Smith) @ +159 / 2.59 on 5Dimes
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