MLB - 955 Milwaukee Brewers @ 956 Pittsburgh Pirates
(Starting Pitchers: M. Fiers vs W. Rodriguez)
The Brewers will be starting Fiers today and after a good run of consecutive quality outings, he has now struggled on his last two starts, while allowing 12 earned runs and 14 hits in just 7 innings. After the disaster in Colorado, it was expected that Fiers would bounce back at home in a game against the unimpressive Philadelphia offense, but the truth is that Fiers struggled again with 5 hits and 4 runs allowed in 5IP, while having a 5/4 K/BB ratio, 9.30 FIP and 6.15 xFIP. He is now struggling in terms of confidence and now that the league has figured him out, he should struggle today, especially when this won't be the first time he will face Pittsburgh, as in June 3, he allowed 4 earned runs and 8 hits in 5IP against them. Curiously, previous to those two poor starts, this game against the Pirates had been his worst outing of the season with 7.20 ERA, 5.70 FIP and 3.43 xFIP! This will be the first time that Fiers will face a team for the second time and therefore, I predict a very tough outing for him tonight.
The Pirates will be starting Rodriguez tonight, who has posted a 5.06 ERA since joining Pittsburgh, while losing three of his four starts with the Pirates. He didn't start last Monday because he was called from the bullpen in the previous day marathon game in St Louis, where he pitched 2IP. His problem won't be lack of rest tonight, but the fact that he has been struggling in Pittsburgh, with a tremendous lack of strikeouts, with just 5, 4, 2 and 1 K's over his four starts with Pittsburgh. At the same time, he has been walking batters and allowing home runs, so he is definitely not in good form right now. Looking at the fact Milwaukee's roster is hitting .300 BA and .798 OPS in 233 AB's, I believe it won't be today that Rodriguez will have his first great outing with a Pittsburgh uniform.
With both SP struggling today against two offenses that have some power to crush the remaining confidence of these two pitchers, I believe we are in presence of a game that will have a lot of runs scored and therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here. Looking at the fact that Pittsburgh is playing for finally reaching the playoffs, while Milwaukee keeps struggling on the road, combined with my belief that Fiers will have another very tough night on this game, I'll be also taking Pittsburgh in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 955/956 Over 7.5 (w/ M. Fiers & W. Rodriguez) @ -115 / 1.87 on 5Dimes
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 956 Pittsburgh Pirates ML (w/ W. Rodriguez) @ -108 / 1.93 on 5 Dimes
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