MLB - 967 Oakland Athletics @ 968 Cleveland Indians
(Starting Pitchers: T. Milone vs Z. McAllister)
Oakland may be in a great run right now by winning nine of their last eleven games, however I believe they will have a tough game tonight. They will start Milone, who won't definitely be in a good spot for tonight. Not only he isn't playing at home where he pitches much better (2.34 ERA, .205 BA, 2.77 FIP, 3.93 xFIP at home vs 5.77 ERA, .311 BA, 5.50 FIP, 4.08 xFIP on the road), as he will also face a team that will explore well his problems against LH batters, as Cleveland has a lineup full of LH batters. That's why that the Indians were able to have four runs and seven hits against him in Oakland a week and a half ago. In fact, Milone has a 4.92 FIP and 4.71 xFIP versus LH batters, which means that if we combine tonight's spot of a road game against a team full of LH batters, we quickly understand that Milone will be his worst spot possible and therefore, Cleveland should have a good shot of putting him in a lot of trouble tonight.
On the other hand, Cleveland will start McAllister, who must be the unluckiest SP in the league. He has very good numbers with 3.50 ERA, 3.58 FIP and 3.99 xFIP, but he keeps struggling to win decisions due to lack of run support. But with Milone on a terrible spot tonight and with McAllister being solid, it's possible that he has a very good shot of winning a decision tonight.
With Cleveland having the tools to put Milone in trouble tonight, while having a very solid SP in the mount, I believe the Indians have a golden shot of having a good win tonight and therefore, I'm taking them in here for the upset.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 968 Cleveland Indians ML (w/ Z. McAllister) @ +107 / 2.07 on 5Dimes
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