Tuesday, August 28, 2012

MLB Free Premium Play 08/28: St Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates

  
St. Louis  at Pittsburgh 
MLB - 953 St Louis Cardinals @ 954 Pittsburgh Pirates


(Starting Pitchers: J. Westbrook vs J. McDonald)


The Cardinals won the first game of this series yesterday in a tight game, where both teams struggle with their RISP. St Louis will start Westbrook today and even though he has won six of his last seven starts, he hasn't been impressive lately, especially on his last start against the lowly Astros, where he needed to massive run support to compensate his poor start, where he allowed 5 runs and 7 hits in just 5.0IP. Westbrook is now coming from three starts in a row where his FIP was higher than his ERA, therefore I really believe he will continue struggling tonight against a Pirates roster that is hitting .308 BA and .799 OPS against him in 156 AB's. This is clearly a good spot to fade Westbrook and so, I believe he will have a very tough outing tonight.

The problem for Pittsburgh is that I don't believe McDonald will have an easier outing tonight than Westbrook. McDonald has been having a terrible second half of the season, being currently posting a 7.29 ERA in eight starts since the All-Star break. He looked decent against the Cardinals two starts ago, but then had a terrible outing in San Diego, where he allowed four runs and five hits in five innings against the Padres in Petco Park. And if he posts a 7.20 ERA, 5.29 FIP and 7.65 xFIP in a game played in the pitching-friendly Petco Park, I believe he will highly struggle tonight against a red hot Cards offense, ready to get revenge from the last time they faced McDonald and pound him big time tonight.

I expect to see both starting pitchers heavily struggling tonight and therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 953/954 Over 8 (w/ J. Westbrook & J. McDonald) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bookmaker

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