Thursday, August 30, 2012

MLB Free Premium Play 08/30: New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies

  
New York  at Philadelphia 
MLB - 951 New York Mets @ 952 Philadelphia Phillies


(Starting Pitchers: J. Niese vs K. Kendrick)


The Mets will start Niese today and he is coming from a loss against Houston, but where he pitched well once again with just three earned runs in seven innings. He has been solid lately with 4.39 FIP/3.37 xFIP, 1.19 FIP/2.19 xFIP and 3.97 FIP/4.00 xFIP on his last three starts. He is posting a 2.29 ERA, .212 BA, 3.35 FIP and 3.54 xFIP in August, so he is really having superb numbers lately. He also has good numbers against Philadelphia, where he has just allowed 1, 2, 4 and 0 runs on four outings against the Phillies. He is just allowing the Phillies' roster to hit .244 BA and .690 OPS in 156 AB's, so I believe he will have a good outing today, especially when the two guys who better hit against him (Polanco 11-32 and Ruiz 6-17) will be out of today's game.

Philadelphia will start Kendrick and he is also pitching well lately, with back to back shutouts and on his last start, he allowed just two runs but had to throw 115 pitches in 6.2IP. He struggled a bit with 2.70 ERA, 5.50 FIP and 4.87 xFIP, so I believe the Mets who are now confident with 4-0 on his last four games should be able to put Kendrick in some trouble today.

I believe the Mets will have a SP edge today and with the Mets being now more confident, I believe they will be able to hit well today as well. Therefore, I see value on the Mets today and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 951 New York Mets ML (w/ J. Niese) @ -105 / 1.95 on Bookmaker

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