Projected Line: 54 points
I believe this will be a very interesting game to watch, as I see both teams having a lot of motivation to perform well tonight. If Atlanta wins tonight, they will secure the #1 seed on the NFC, their biggest goal of the regular season. On the other hand, Detroit has an opportunity to save a bit their disastrous season, as they are currently 4-10 in the league and they would be able to save face a bit if they defeat a top team on National TV tonight. The Lions are also coming from a horrible loss at Arizona last week, so they are also on a bounce back spot tonight.
Therefore, I expect this contest to be quite close, with both offenses getting the upperhand over the opposing defense. Even though he has been having a poor season for his standards, Matthew Stafford is still a capable quarterback and the Lions are #1 in the league in passing yards per game. Atlanta's pass defense is good in getting takeaways, but their coverage is average and I don't see them being able to stop the combinations between Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson. The Falcons run defense is very poor (#30 with 4.9 yards allowed per carry), so I expect to see the Lions running game having a good performance tonight.
Detroit's main problem is their depleted defense due to injuries. The Lions won't be able to use Nick Fairley, Jacob Lacey, Corey Williams and Bill Bentley on tonight's contest, while Louis Delmas is also questionable. I know most of these defenders weren't able to play for most of the season, but that's the main reason why the Lions struggled so much on their pass defense throughout the whole year. Matt Ryan is having a career season and with Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez, the Falcons will have a lot of highly favorable matchups down the field, something that should allow Ryan to make a good number of big plays tonight. Detroit's run defense is also only #27 in the league by allowing 4.6 yards per carry, therefore Atlanta's running game might have an unusual good night tonight as well.
I believe this game will quickly turn into a shootout, as both quarterbacks will have favorable matchups down the field to throw some big plays. Both teams have poor run defenses, so the running games of both teams will also give good support to their offenses. On the other hand, both teams lack a decent enough pass rush to outplay the opposing offensive line, in order to put pressure on the opposing quarterback. We have all the ingredients necessary to have a high scoring game in here and so, I'll be taking the Over on this contest.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 101/102 Over 50 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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