NBA - 721 Los Angeles Lakers @ 722 Denver Nuggets
Projected Line: Denver by 7 points
Both teams are on a similar spot, as these two teams played yesterday and on the same court. The Lakers defeated at home the Knicks, while Denver lost on the road in LA against the Clippers. The LA team made a huge effort yesterday to beat the Knicks and the result of that was the little rotation they had on the lineup: Kobe Bryant played 44 minutes, Steve Nash 38 minutes (!), Dwight Howard 38 minutes, Metta World Peace 39 minutes and Pau Gasol 34 minutes. If we exclude Jordan Meeks, all the other bench players were on the court for 10 minutes or less! Denver had on paper a worse spot, as they played on the same court but much later, however they got so crushed on the second quarter of that game that only two of their players were on the court for more than 30 minutes: Ty Lawson with 32 minutes and Kenneth Faried with 33 minutes!
It looks like suddenly the Lakers are once again a contending team after beating the Knicks, who had to make a NY -> LA trip with just one day of rest. The Knicks lost Steve Novak in the third quarter, Carmelo Anthony got injured on his knee and Raymond Felton was banged up on one of his fingers, so luck was on the side of the Lakers when it mattered the most. It's also important to notice that the Knicks offense are a good matchup for the Lakers, as the Knicks didn't want to run and they scored just 8 fast break points, so the Lakers didn't see their terrible dribble penetration defense getting exposed. In fact, the Lakers have won their last five games against opponents without great transition skills, with the exception of the Bobcats: Washington is #20 on fast break points per game, Philadelphia is #19, Charlotte is #4, Golden State is #12 and the NY Knicks are #28! It's important to note that the Bobcats (the only good fast breaks team from this group) led the Lakers in the game by 18 points and only lost down the stretch, in a game where Kemba Walker crushed them with 12-25 FG and 28 minutes, while even Ramon Sessions shot 7-13 FG! Things are about to get even tougher for the LA team, as they will be facing the Nuggets tonight, a team that leads the league in fast break points per game with 18.3 ppg, with Ty Lawson being likely to get unstoppable tonight.
Denver will have a tremendous edge tonight due to their playing style and their aggression on attacking the basket against the slow footed Lakers. This would be evident in any situation, but this will be even more evident tonight, with the Lakers on a poor physical spot. Denver didn't have a shot to beat the Clippers last night, a team that is even more athletic than them. That's why I took both the Clippers and the Over in last night's games. The Lakers may have crushed the Nuggets at home on the first game of the season between these two teams by 122-103, but the Lakers had two days off prior to that game, while Denver was on a back to back spot. Also note that the Lakers shot a ridiculous 17-33 3pts, something impossible to repeat tonight. Denver will set a fast pace tonight that Mike D'Antoni will accept and make his team run as well. The problem is that the Lakers' defensive problems will be explored and the LA team will eventually run out of gas to keep Denver on the scoreboard. Therefore, I expect an easy win for the Nuggets tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 722 Denver Nuggets (-3,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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