NBA - 821 Philadelphia 76ers @ 822 Golden State Warriors
Projected Line: 204 points
Golden State has been struggling on their perimeter defense and with their frontcourt also not giving a lot of resistance against the penetrations from the opposing guards, I believe Philadelphia with Jrue Holiday and Evan Turner have a good offensive spot for tonight, while easily penetrating into the basket due to the poor perimeter defense and lack of team help defense from the Warriors frontcourt. Golden State is #29 on pick and roll ball handler defense while allowing 0.86 PPP, so the Sixers have a good area to explore on the offensive end tonight. Thaddeus Young is also took quick for the Warriors frontcourt to handle him and with Golden State being #18 on 16-23 feet defense with 38.5% FG, Philadelphia has another good area to have some damage on offense tonight.
On the other hand, Philadelphia is coming from a road win in Memphis, while they were able to double team Zach Randolph and/or Marc Gasol and with that, they closed the paint, while giving a lot of space on the outside that the Grizzlies poor perimeter shooting couldn't take advantage of that: 6-19 FG from 16-23 feet and 5-15 3pts. For today, things will be different, as Golden State has a solid post up game with David Lee and Carl Landry, while their perimeter shooting is also quite good. Philadelphia's perimeter defense has been struggling this season, as their guards need to help on the inside and with that, they lack the time to make the proper close outs to the perimeter. That's why Philadelphia is just #22 on spot up defense and #25 on 3pts% defense this season with 37.1% 3pts allowed. Philadelphia's defense is just #24 on post ups and #24 on cuts, two areas where Golden State's offense is a top 10 team. Unlike what they did against Memphis, Philadelphia won't be able to close the paint and give space on the outside, as Klay Thompson, Jarrett Jack and Stephen Curry would torch them. But if they close out on the perimeter and leave space on the paint, both David Lee and Carl Landry will also pound them down low. Basically, one way or another, the Sixers defense is into a very struggling night.
I expect this game to be a high scoring game, with a relatively fast paced game and with both teams taking advantage of the clear edges they will have on offense. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 821/822 Over 200 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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