NBA - 805 Miami Heat @ 806 Detroit Pistons
Projected Line: 193 points
This isn't a good spot for Miami, as after they played a Christmas game at home against Oklahoma City, played at Charlotte in the following day. They will now play at Detroit without Dwayne Wade, who is suspended for today. Detroit is coming from a great effort at Atlanta, where they made a huge comeback in the fourth quarter with their second unit, just to lose in double overtime. The Pistons showed at Atlanta that they are a horrible defense on transition, while the Hawks frontcourt destroyed the Pistons big players when they played near the basket. Detroit has allowed 22, 0 (against slow-paced Toronto), 15, 25 and 36 fast break points in their last five games. If we exclude the game against Toronto, they have allowed 24.5 fast break points per game over their last four games. Their rim defense has also been very poor, as they have allowed 70% FG at the rim over their last 10 games. Detroit has a very good 3pts defense by allowing just 32.8% 3pts (#3), however they have been facing poor 3pts offenses, as Philadelphia (#8) was the only top 10 team they have faced over their last 10 games. Miami is #1 in the league on 3pts and I expect them to be able to have a decent production from the perimeter today.
Miami will have a clear edge on transition offense and perimeter shooting, while Chris Bosh will also pound the Pistons poor rim defense down low. On the other side, Miami is on a poor spot today, so I believe Detroit will be able to have a decent offensive game as well. Also in case of a Heat blowout, the Pistons second unit has a good scoring punch as seen in their last game. Greg Monroe will have an edge on offense over Miami's defense, while Detroit will also have a good edge on offensive rebounding. Detroit will have more chances to score down low and this will be the key to have a decent offensive game. I expect Miami to have a very good offensive game, while the Pistons should also score a decent amount of points today, therefore I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 805/806 Over 189,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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