Saturday, December 15, 2012

NBA Free Premium Play 12/15: Golden State Warriors @ Atlanta Hawks

  
Golden State  at Atlanta 
NBA - 501 Golden State Warriors @ 502 Atlanta Hawks

Projected Line: 200 points


Golden State is coming from a clear loss at Orlando last night, where they didn't show a lot of energy to grab rebounds or to battle down low. David Lee and Stephen Curry shot well, but Klay Thompson, Harrison Barnes and Carl Landry didn't. Golden State shot 4-14 FG on pick and rolls, while Orlando pounded them down low and had finally a good 3pts shooting game with 9-21 3pts!


This is the final game of the Warriors' road trip, while it is also their third game in four nights and a back to back game. David Lee played 41 minutes, Stephen Curry 43 minutes, Klay Thompson 33 minutes and Jarrett Jack 36 minutes last night. They will now play at Atlanta, who lost at Golden State by 92-88 earlier on the season. Golden State had a great spot for that game, while Atlanta was playing their third game in four days, while Al Horford was out with an injury. Atlanta was a complete jump shooting team in that game with just 20 points in the paint and a ridiculous 7-9 FG at the rim!


Atlanta will use a small lineup tonight, with Al Horford, Josh Smith, DeShawn Stevenson, Kyle Korver and Jeff Teague. The Hawks have been protecting very well the basket on defense, but they aren't as good at the perimeter by being just #18 on 3pts defense with 35.6%. Atlanta's defense hasn't been good on pick and rolls and transitions, so Golden State will have some offensive edge on the perimeter with Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. On the inside, I expect Golden State will score some points as well, with David Lee having some size edge over Josh Smith.


On the other hand, will the Warriors handle Atlanta's offense? The Hawks love to score in transition and they scored 22 fast break points against Charlotte on their last game. They have been inconsistent on their 3pts shooting, but with Kyle Korver back, I believe they will have a decent shooting night in here. Jeff Teague and Louis Williams will have an offensive edge over Stephen Curry and Jarrett Jack, while David Lee will struggle to defend Josh Smith. I expect a good offensive game from both teams in here and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.


Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Over 196,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

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