NBA - 501 Indiana Pacers @ 502 Atlanta Hawks
Projected Line: 178 points | pk line
Atlanta will play their third game in four nights, while also being on a back to back spot, while Indiana is on a back to back spot today. Atlanta has Anthony Morrow, Josh Smith and Ivan Johnson questionable for today, while Devin Harris is doubtful. With the Hawks being shorthanded right now, Atlanta is now using some players on heavy minutes, especially Josh Smith, Al Horford, Jeff Teague, Kyle Korver and Louis Williams. The Hawks is coming from a road win at Cleveland, where they ended the game with a 9-0 run. Cleveland was very perimeter oriented with 13-23 FG at the rim, while they shot 10-22 FG from 16-23 feet and 8-21 treys! Atlanta showed again a poor dribble penetration defense, with Kyrie Irving shooting 12-20 FG and Dion Waiters 7-21 FG! On the other hand, Jeff Teague had 11-19 FG, 27 points and 8 assists. Atlanta did very well on their jumpers with 8-19 FG from 16-23 feet and 12-24 3pts!
Indiana is coming from a home win against Phoenix, where they started well with 58 points and 56% FG in the first half, just to almost lose at the end. The Pacers showed little effort on defense during the second half and this is why David West and some timely defense had to rescue the team down the stretch. With Goran Dragic out, George Hill had a big game with 9-13 FG. Phoenix shot a lot from the perimeter with 18-38 FG from 16-23 feet and 2-14 3pts. They also did well on cuts and Luis Scola and Marcin Gortat did well on the frontcourt at some moments of the game.
Atlanta's spot for tonight is much worse and against a physical team like Indiana, this can easily become a very serious problem. Atlanta was able to play well on transition over their last two games with 36 and 13 fast break points, however Indiana won't allow the Hawks to have this kind of plays, as they are #1 on transition defense and #1 on fast break points allowed per game. Indiana is also #1 on 3pts% allowed, so they won't allow the Hawks to shoot well from the perimeter. With Al Horford having big minutes again and with Josh Smith banged up, Atlanta will struggle to score against Indiana's defense. The Pacers will make this game a half court game and Atlanta's offense will struggle with their poor spot and poor matchup against Indiana's defense.
Atlanta's shorthanded backcourt is struggling to stop the dribble penetrations from their opposing guards, so this is a good chance for George Hill to have a big game. Atlanta defends post ups rather well and Zaza Pachulia will have big minutes today to prevent the Pacers frontcourt to have a big offensive game. This should be a tight game, but with Indiana's good defense and better spot making the difference, on a low scoring contest. Therefore, I'll be taking both Indiana and the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Under 183,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501 Indiana Pacers (+3,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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