Projected Line: 40 points
I expect this game to be a quite physical matchup between these two great football teams. Jay Cutler suffered a neck injury last week and this won't be a good spot for him, as Green Bay's pass rush will be all over him today, especially with Clay Matthews back. With Michael Bush being banged up with a ribs injury, Chicago's running game will also be a bit weaker today, even though they should have a solid game against an average Packers run defense. On the other side, Aaron Rodgers will get pressured a lot today as well, as Chicago will be fired up today and ready to try to avoid giving any big play opportunity to Green Bay's passing game. The Packers have been rushing the football a lot lately, but without great efficiency most of the times, something that should happen once again today. I expect a relatively low scoring game today, with both quarterbacks getting pressured a lot and not being able to get their offensive gaining any rhythm on a cold day. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 303/304 Under 44 @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada
NFL Week 15 - 307 Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 308 New Orleans Saints
Projected Line: pk line
These two teams are very good on their passing game, but Tampa Bay is definitely better than New Orleans in other parts of the game and they should be able to make this game close at least. The Buccaneers' running game will absolutely pound the Saints' terrible run defense today, with Doug Martin having an excellent matchup to have another huge game. On the other hand, Drew Brees has been inconsistent and clearly playing below his regular level, while the Saints' running game will struggle in getting any kind of efficiency against the best run defense in the league that is allowing just 3.3 yards per carry. Tampa Bay lost at home against New Orleans on a very lucky win for the Saints and with revenge on their mind, I expect the Bucs to be able to make this game super competitive and perhaps even win it outright. I'm taking Tampa Bay today.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 307 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+4) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada
NFL Week 15 - 315 Denver Broncos @ 316 Baltimore Ravens
Projected Line: Denver by 6 points
This was a strange week for Baltimore, with their offensive coordinator getting fired. I believe this wasn't the best timing to make this change, as the Ravens will be facing one of the best defenses in football in the Broncos. Joe Flacco will face one of the best pass rushes in football and I expect him to struggle in getting any offensive production today. Ray Rice will face the #2 run defense in the league and therefore, I believe the Ravens will struggle offensively today. On the other hand, Baltimore's defense is currently dealing with several banged up players, something that will require the presence of some inexperienced defenders on the field. Peyton Manning is the right quarterback to take advantage of that and therefore, I expect Denver to comfortably win this game. I'm taking the Broncos today.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 315 Denver Broncos (-2,5) @ -115 / 1.87 on 5Dimes
NFL Week 15 - 325 Pittsburgh Steelers @ 326 Dallas Cowboys
Projected Line: Pittsburgh by 3 points
This is a key game for both teams, as they are looking to sneak a playoff spot on the last weeks of the season. However, I believe much more on the Steelers to do that than the Cowboys. Ben Roethlisberger is having a good season, even with some injuries, and I expect him to be able to expose a Cowboys' secondary that will be missing deeply Morris Claiborne today. On the other hand, Tony Romo is just about the worst quarterback in the league to trust on this kind of situations and Pittsburgh's very experienced defense will take advantage of the problems that Romo will have to deal today, especially with the lack of quality receivers on the field, something that has been making the Cowboys' offense struggle the whole season and that only got worse with Dez Bryant's injury last week. I believe the Steelers will make a good job in stopping the Cowboys' offense, while Ben Roethlisberger has a good spot to explode a Cowboys defense that hasn't been impressive this season. Both teams need this game, but Pittsburgh is the better team and the matchup favors them. Therefore, I'll be taking the Steelers in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 325 Pittsburgh Steelers (+1) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
2-Team 6pts Teaser:
NFL Week 16 - 313 Jacksonville Jaguars @ 314 Miami Dolphins
NFL Week 16 - 317 Indianapolis Colts @ 318 Houston Texans
Miami has a good matchup today against a Jaguars team that is probably now looking to get the #1 draft pick next season. The Dolphins' offense will be able to do a decent job today against a mediocre Jags team, while their top defense won't have problems in stopping Chad Henne and the poor Jaguars' running game that is without Maurice Jones-Drew and Rashad Jennings. I expect an easy win for the Dolphins today.
Houston will be looking to bounce back after last week's humiliating loss at New England on Monday Night Football. They have a good chance today against a Colts team that is clearly worse than their 9-4 record shows. Houston's pass defense will certainly limit Andrew Luck today, while the Colts running game isn't talented enough to do anything on their own. On the other side, both Matt Schaub and Arian Foster have good matchups against the poor Colts' defense and therefore, I believe Houston will prove once and for all that they are the best team on this division and get an easy win today.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 314 Miami Dolphins (-2) x 318 Houston Texans (-4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NFL Week 16 - 329 San Francisco 49ers @ 330 New England Patriots
Projected Line: 52 points
I expect this game to be a shootout. As much as San Francisco's defense is good, New England's offense is unstoppable right now, especially at home on a National TV game. Tom Brady has been amazing and he will keep finding the right places to throw the football and they will eventually outplay the 49ers defense a good number of times today. However, San Francisco's offense should also be able to get a lot of production today. Colin Kaepernick's mobility will drive New England's defense crazy, just like Russell Wilson did back at the Patriots loss at Seattle, while the 49ers running game will also outplay the Patriots' decent-but-not-great run defense. I believe this game will be a close high-scoring game and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 329/330 Over 47 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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