NBA Free Premium Play 12/18: Philadelphia 76ers @ Dallas Mavericks

Philadelphia  at Dallas

NBA - 513 Philadelphia 76ers @ 514 Dallas Mavericks Projected Line: 189 points Philadelphia's defense has been regressing lately, as they had a defensive rating of 112.37, 106.90, 107.02, 108.89 and 122.28 on their last five games. However, they faced good physical big men on their last four games: Detroit had Greg Monroe, Chicago had Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah, Indiana had Roy Hibbert and David West, while the LA Lakers had Dwight Howard.  Philadelphia can't be quick enough on the wings to pack the paint and close out on the outside at the same time. Fortunately for them, Dallas doesn't have a dominant big man and that's why they are just #26 on shots attempted at the rim with 27.2% volume. Therefore, Philadelphia won't need to complicate things on defense tonight. Dallas needs to be able to explore their transition plays, in order to be effective on the offensive end. They have more than 15% volume on transition plays, while being #6 at this area. However, Philadelphia is #2 on transition defense with just 1.05 PPP allowed and #4 on fast break points allowed per game with 11.9, so they will prevent Dallas from scoring a lot on fast breaks tonight. So, Philadelphia will only have to limit Dallas 3pts shots to shutdown their offense tonight. Dallas is #6 in the league with 37.7% 3pts, but after they got pounded by the Lakers, coach Doug Collins said the following: “Unfortunately right now we are struggling mightily to defend the three,” Doug Collins said.“We were outscored by 25 points from the three-point line and the free-throw line [combined]. I think our last few losses we’ve been minus-15, minus-9 at the three-point line, minus-6 from the foul line. That’s tough to overcome. We’re going to have to figure it out. Last year we were one of the best three-point defensive teams in the league. Obviously we’ve lost some key defenders and some speed and we’ve not been able to figure it out yet.” I expect an extra focus on this area by Philadelphia's defense tonight. Jrue Holiday's absence is hurting the Sixers offense a lot. Philadelphia is dependent from the ball handling of Jrue Holiday and Evan Turner to be efficient on offense, but in the two previous games without Holiday, the volume of the Sixers on isolation plays has raised considerably. This is a sign of a stagnant offense, missing a lot their starting PG. Philadelphia's offense is now very predictable and completely dependent from what Evan Turner and Thaddeus Young can do. Rick Carlisle will put Shawn Marion in one of these two players, so Philadelphia's offense will struggle tonight. I expect Philadelphia to be efficient on defense, but to struggle on offense, therefore I expect this game to turn into a low scoring contest. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 513/514 Under 194 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada