NBA - 501 Dallas Mavericks @ 502 Oklahoma City Thunder
Projected Line: 200 points | Oklahoma City by 14 points
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
Dallas had three days off to prepare this game and they really need, considering they got absolutely crushed at San Antonio last Sunday night by 91-129! Dirk Nowitzki played for the first time this season, but he came off the bench. The Mavericks starting lineup was composed by Dominique Jones, O.J. Mayo, Dahntay Jones, Shawn Marion and Chris Kaman! No wonder they got crushed by the Spurs! There is a lot of indefiniteness in the rotations and this is really causing problems to Dallas. Darren Collison and Dominique Jones are on the table. Rodrigue Beaubois is a wild card.
“Look, we’ve got three guys that have all done good things,” Rick Carlisle said, trying to put a positive spin on the situation. “We just need to keep going forward and keep getting those guys better, and I think Dirk being back on the floor certainly enhances everybody’s opportunity to play better.”
Both Darren Collison and Dominique Jones started one game since Derek Fisher's sudden exit and both performed while coming off the bench. Perhaps due to this lack of definition at the PG position, the Mavericks are turnover prone and even though Oklahoma City isn't pressuring the ball handler a lot this season, Dallas should still have some silly turnovers throughout tonight's game. Dallas is also a terrible rebounding team, including on defensive rebounding, so Oklahoma City will have a good night in grabbing offensive rebounds.
The Mavericks offense currently depends a lot from O.J. Mayo, as Dirk Nowitzki is still very far from 100% and he will keep coming off the bench. Mayo will be defended by Thabo Sefolosha tonight and therefore, I expect the Mavericks played to struggle against a top defender. The Mavericks have been playing at a relatively fast pace, but they don't have any kind of offensive efficiency, unlike most teams that play at a fast tempo. They are just shooting 40-138 (39%) from the 3pts line over their last eight games and their lack of good outside shooters is more than evident. O.J. Mayo is their only good perimeter shooter, but with Sefolosha defending him tonight, not even Mayo should have a good game tonight. Dallas has also a decent transition offense and a reasonable post up game with Chris Kaman, Elton Brand and now also a limited Dirk Nowitzki. Oklahoma City is #4 on post up defense and #28 on transition defense, however the Thunder is #2 on fast break points allowed per game with just 11.5 ppg! Their opponents may be able to convert the transition plays they have against Oklahoma City, but they are quite rare. Therefore, I don't see how Dallas will have a decent offensive game tonight.
Dallas is also on a clear defensive regression on spot ups (0.97 PPP season average vs 1.05 PPP lately), cuts (1.18 vs 1.56) and transitions (1.16 vs 1.21), three areas where the Thunder's offense is #2 on the league. The Thunder have just too much athleticism to pound the Mavericks defense! Oklahoma City is 0-2 on their last two games and they had a poor spot at Minnesota, with the Wolves outrebounding them, Andrei Kirilenko defending well Kevin Durant and Kevin Martin being out due to injury, while they lost at Miami fair and square against the reigning champions. Things will be much different tonight and I expect Oklahoma City to have a bounce back blowout win tonight, while completely shutting down the Mavericks offense. Therefore, I'll be taking Oklahoma City on a Single Dime Play and the Under on a Double Dime Play!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 501/502 Under 207,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 502 Oklahoma City Thunder (-10) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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