NBA - 723 Golden State Warriors @ 724 Utah Jazz
Projected Line: 199 points | Utah by 1 point
With Mo Williams out with an injury, Jamaal Tinsley will be Utah's starting PG tonight. This won't improve the Jazz perimeter defense that has been poor and won't get better with Randy Foye and Jamaal Tinsley together on the backcourt. Utah is #27 on 3pts defense with 38.4% 3pts allowed and #29 on spot up defense with 1.10 PPP allowed. They are also quite poor on pick and roll ball handler defense by being #25 with 0.83 PPP allowed. They are coming from a road win at Orlando last Sunday, where the Magic shot 9-20 3pts by exploring the Jazz's poor perimeter defense. Utah will now play against Golden State and that's bad news for the Jazz, as Golden State has one of the best shooting backcourts in the league with Klay Thompson, Stephen Curry and Jarrett Jack. As expected, Golden State is a top offensive team on this area by being #6 on pick and roll ball handler plays, #3 on spot up shooting and #6 on 3pts shooting with 37.4% 3pts! If we take in account that both Curry and Thompson struggled early on the season, then we quickly realize that Golden State's recent number on their perimeter shooting are even better!
On the other hand, Utah's perimeter offense has been struggling as expected due to their lack of shooting talent. Over the last ten games, they are just shooting 36% FG from 16-23 feet and 33.3% 3pts. Then, the key matchup on the Jazz's offense will be on the frontcourt. First of all, Golden State is #4 on defensive rebounding with a 75.0% defensive rebound rate, then Utah won't have the field day on offense and rebounding that they used to have over the last few seasons in games against the Warriors. Golden State has also a respectable #13 position on the post up defense, so while the Warriors will crush Utah on the backcourt, the Jazz will have some troubles on the frontcourt. Also as long as Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap are on the court, Utah will have a poor inside defense that the Warriors will also explore.
"We know how they can hurt you," Jackson said. "They have four legitimate bigs who can hurt you on the glass, on the post and on the interior. It's important for us to rebound. It's not just the responsibility of our big guys. When we're at our best, our perimeter guys are getting in there and chipping in."
I see the Warriors being a terrible matchup for the Jazz and with Utah not a great spot (ended a long road trip last Sunday night), I expect Golden State to make this game ultra competitive and perhaps even win this game outright. Therefore, I'll be taking the Warriors in here. As I expect Utah to struggle offensively in here, I believe this game won't reach the number of points that this high totals line is requiring, therefore I'll be also taking the Under on this contest.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 723/724 Under 204 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 723 Golden State Warriors (+4,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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