NBA - 507 Indiana Pacers @ 508 Detroit Pistons
Projected Line: 187 points
Detroit is coming from a loss last night in Brooklyn on double overtime, but this isn't a terrible spot for them, as they had two days off prior to the game against the Nets. However, four of their players were on the court for more than 40 minutes yesterday. On the other side, Indiana is coming from an easy home win against the Sixers, where they used their frontcourt edge and also took advantage of Jrue Holiday's absence. George Hill was amazing with a triple double: 15 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists. Indiana shot just 6-22 FG on post up plays, while having also 11 pick and roll ball handler plays and 12 offensive rebound plays. They will now face a Pistons' defense that is #30 on post up defense, while also being a poor defensive rebounding team (#26 with 71.0%). So, there's no doubt that Indiana's offense has a good matchup tonight.
Detroit has a lot of volume at the rim on offense, but Indiana is a top team in defending the rim (#5) and the paint (#1). The Pistons has been better on pick and rolls lately, with Rodney Stuckey and Brandon Knight, who have been playing better lately. The same is happening with their cuts and transition plays, also thanks to Stuckey's and Knight's improvements on offense. Indiana is #29 on pick and roll ball handler defense, #20 on cuts defense and #1 on transition defense, so I believe Detroit will have some edge tonight, especially on pick and rolls and cuts.
I expect Indiana to use their frontcourt and offensive rebounding edge to have a great offensive game in here, while Detroit should hang in the scoreboard thanks to their offensive edges on pick and rolls and cuts. I see this game being a more offensive-oriented game than the odds are currently showing, so I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507/508 Over 183 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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