NBA - 815 Denver Nuggets @ 816 Dallas Mavericks
Projected Line: Denver by 6 points
Dallas is coming from an overtime loss at Oklahoma City last night, where some of their key players had relatively heavy minutes: Darren Collison 40 minutes, Shawn Marion 34 minutes and O.J. Mayo 36 minutes. The problem for the Mavericks tonight is really the matchup. Dallas is trying to be a bit like Denver this season, with a fast pace and a lot of transition plays. This is why they scored 20 fast break points against the Thunder, while being #5 in the league on transition plays. The problem is that they commit a lot of turnovers, but they especially lack the correct players to play on this style: their roster is too old!
The Mavericks lack explosion, especially on the frontcourt and this is why they are one of the worst rebounding teams in the league. Dallas is #28 on defensive rebounding with just 71.2%. At the same time, Denver is #1 on offensive rebounding with 32.4%! If we add the better physical spot for the Nuggets tonight, we have a huge rebounding edge for Denver on this contest. O.J. Mayo is the team's main offensive weapon, as Dirk Nowitzki keeps playing limited minutes, but Andre Iguodala will be defending him tonight. A tired Darren Collison will also struggle to defend Ty Lawson. Denver will have an edge down low and with their better spot as well, they will have an easy win tonight. Therefore, I'll be taking the Nuggets in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 815 Denver Nuggets (-3) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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