NBA - 809 Charlotte Bobcats @ 810 Brooklyn Nets
Projected Line: Brooklyn by 6 points
Brooklyn will play their third game in four nights, with this game being the first without Avery Johnson coaching the team. On the other hand, Charlotte had one day off to rest and prepare for this game. With the Nets being on a poor spot for tonight, I don't believe that they will be able to prepare this game conveniently with a coaching change in the middle. The Bobcats will try to put their transition game into action tonight via Kemba Walker's penetrations into the basket. They have been good on offensive rebounding as well, while committing a low number of turnovers. Brooklyn has been showing a terrible help defense, with Brook Lopez struggling on defensive and with Kris Humphries injured, the Nets are also playing with an undersized lineup as well. The result of that has been Brooklyn allowed a ridiculous 80% FG at the rim over their last 5 games! Their transition defense has also been a disaster, with the team showing no foot speed, while allowing 16, 22, 7, 8, 21, 13, 22 and 17 fast break points over their last eight games. Brooklyn has also been struggling on defensive rebounding due to the fact that Brook Lopez is the only legitimate frontcourt player on their starting lineup. With Gerald Henderson and Ben Gordon back, the Bobcats have some shooting skills back, while with Hakim Warrick, the team is now playing more down low, instead of with Byron Mullens, who pretty much only shoots from the perimeter. Therefore, the Bobcats have the right conditions to have a good offensive game tonight.
On the other hand, Charlotte's defense has been struggling in defending the perimeter against good passing game, but that's not the case with Brooklyn, a team that has no flow and has a lot of ISO ball. Eventually the Nets will improve on these areas, but for now their A/TO ratio has been just 1.30 over their last ten games. On the Bobcats last game against Miami, they allowed just 8 points in the paint to the Heat during the second half and they also surrendered 0 second chance points! Coach Dunlap on the defensive adjustments to make this possible: “Our biggest defensive adjustment was not to give them run-outs off our turnovers. That’s where they got separation and pushed away from us was our mistakes on the offensive end. They have done that to everyone. I am unaccepting of a high turnover count whether we are on the road or at home. We have to be at 12 (turnovers) or less to be able to win a game. That’s just the way this league is.”
With Brooklyn playing on a half court style, they don't score a lot of transition points as well, so the Bobcats won't get exposed on fast breaks tonight. Charlotte had a bad schedule over their last games on the road that ended with a very tough spot at Detroit, where they were playing their fourth game in five games, while being also on a back to back game. They are coming with some confidence for this game after a good second half against the Heat and with the Nets on a poor spot for tonight, I believe Charlotte should keep this game close. Therefore, I'll be taking the Bobcats in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 809 Charlotte Bobcats (+9,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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