NBA - 705 Cleveland Cavaliers @ 706 Washington Wizards
Projected Line: 192 points | Cleveland by 3 points
This is a good spot for both teams, as they had three days off to prepare for this game. Cleveland is coming from a good road win at Milwaukee, where they struggled against Indiana's good perimeter defense and big frontcourt, they had no problems in outplaying the tired guards of the Bucks. Kyrie Irving shot 6-12 FG, Dion Waiters 9-17 FG and C.J. Miles 5-9 FG. Cleveland played well in transition, with good pick and roll ball handler plays as well (0.84 PPP). Tristan Thompson and Tyler Zeller are getting along better in the absence of Anderson Varejao and the Cavs were able to grab 53% of the rebounds against the Bucks. Milwaukee was on a bad spot at the time, as they were coming from a road win on overtime at Boston in the night before and they didn't have legs to hang with the Cavaliers in that game.
Washington had a double loss against Detroit on a home-home series last Friday and Saturday. On the last game, Detroit shot just 40% FG but outrebounded Washington by 58-43. The Wizards offensive gameplan was to get the ball to Nene Hilario, but he missed layups and open jumpers. Washington was able to get some decent looks, but they just missed them. Brandon Knight was too quick for Jordan Crawford off the dribble and it seems clear right now that there are several Wizards players that are lacking any kind of confidence on their game right now.
Cleveland had a very tough stretch of the schedule recently with eight games in twelve days, including four road games. With Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters back and on a good spot, I expect Cleveland to pound Washington's poor rim defense that has been allowing 70% FG on this area over the last few games, a result of bad team help defense. Their rebounding is getting worse as well and they are allowing too many second chance points. Even without Anderson Varejao, Cleveland isn't a poor rebounding team, as Tristan Thompson is a good rebounder and so, I expect the Cavs to be good on rebounds tonight. Kyrie Irving and his pick and rolls will torch the Wizards, as they have a poor team help defense and so, they don't rotate well on defense. This is a great offensive matchup for Cleveland and so, I expect them to torch Washington tonight.
So, the question in here is to know what Washington will be able to do on offense tonight. The Wizards are a team that attempt very little shots at the rim (23% volume), while they take a lot of jump shots from 16-23 feet (29% volume). The good news for Washington is that Cleveland has the worst 16-23 feet defense of the league by allowing more than 41% FG from this area to their opponents. The only thing that Washington did well on offense in the two games against Detroit was their transitions, as they scored 15 and 25 fast break points, while also shooting 10-14 FG on transitions in their last game. With the Cavaliers transition defense being only #25 in the league while allowing 1.19 PPP, the Wizards should have a good chance to pound them on transitions tonight. Nene Hilario should also be able to outplay Tyler Zeller on offense, as he had three days off to rest.
I expect this game to be a relatively high scoring game, as both teams have clear edges over the opposing defenses today. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here. As Cleveland is right now a much more confident team and they had a tremendous edge down the stretch over the Wizards with Kyrie Irving, I'll also taking the Cavaliers tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 705/706 Over 188 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 705 Cleveland Cavaliers (+1,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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