Projected Line: 195 points
***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***
Since Miami got crushed at home by the Knicks, coach Erik Spoelstra decided to set his efforts in making his team a good defensive team once again. The numbers don't lie on this aspect in terms of the adjustments and the chance of effort that Miami has had before and after that game. Prior to that game, Miami was averaging a defensive rating of 108.45, while after that game, the Heat are averaging a defensive rating of 98.97 in the games played after that encounter with the Knicks. Miami is also playing at a slower pace (91.35 vs 90.08) and the inclusion of Udonis Haslem at the PF position and send Lebron James back to the SF position has also helped the team's defense. After their last game against Utah, coach Spoelstra said the following:
"Now, it's about consistency," Spoelstra said of the Heat, who have won their last four games by a combined 72 points. "But at least we look like a Miami Heat basketball team, in terms of defending and being committed to that end and not just trying to outscore teams."
They will now face Oklahoma City, a team that had 3 days off to rest and prepare this game. The Thunder have been able to play in both ways (fast and slow pace) this season, but their best style is on half court where the athleticism and their powerful frontcourt with Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka can help the team's defense, something that didn't happen in last year's NBA Finals, as Lebron James played a lot at the PF position and with that, Oklahoma City would double team Lebron a lot and he would be able to find the right player on the weak side for the 3pts shot. Oklahoma City has been a top defensive team at the rim this season, so it will be up to Miami to have a super red hot 3pts shooting today, if they want to have a big offensive game. They will have some good looks today, but they won't achieve the great level they had in last year's Finals.
I believe this will be a relatively slow paced game, with a lot of physical contact and with a decent but not great offensive efficiency from both teams. Therefore, I believe the totals line is set way too high for this contest, so I'll be taking the Under in here on a Triple Dime Play!
Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 505/506 Under 205 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
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