NBA - 811 Toronto Raptors @ 812 New Orleans Hornets
Projected Line: 179 points | pk line
Toronto is coming from a loss in San Antonio, where they struggled on offense, with Aaron Gray playing as the starting center. San Antonio had a superior depth, Tony Parker dominated Jose Calderon, while Tim Duncan and the rest of the Spurs frontcourt was just too much for the Raptors. For tonight, we have a game between two super slow paced teams. The Hornets offense depends from their pick and rolls and also Robin Lopez and his post up game against Toronto's frontcourt. In theory, Jose Calderon won't be outplayed by Greivis Vasquez, as the Venezuelan doesn't have Tony Parker's explosion for example. Toronto is a top team in defending pick and roll ball handler plays by being #5 in the league while allowing 0.69 PPP and with Jose Calderon in the starting lineup, the numbers are even better. Therefore, Toronto will have a big defensive edge on an area where New Orleans needs the most to be working at the offensive end. Without Andrea Bargnani, Toronto's rim defense is also improving, even though I'm not sure that Aaron Gray and Amir Johnson will be able to stop Robin Lopez.
On the other hand, Jose Calderon will lead the Raptors offense, while Kyle Lowry will be returning today by coming off the bench. The Raptors have been much better lately on spot ups, cuts and pick and roll roll man due to Calderon's excellent passing skills. I know that New Orleans struggles in closing out in the perimeter by being #26 on spot ups, #14 on pick and roll roll man and #23 on cuts defense. Their numbers in their win at Orlando confirm that, as the Magic had a nice offensive game, even though they lost the game. Both teams are terrible in fast breaks, as New Orleans is #28 in fast break points per game, while Toronto is #30, so this game won't have a considerable number of fast break points. On a very slow paced game, I believe Toronto's defense will completely shutdown the Hornets tonight and that should allow them to be extremely competitive on a game that will certainly be a low scoring contest. Therefore, I'll be taking both Toronto and the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 811/812 Under 183 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 811 Toronto Raptors (+3) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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