NBA - 803 Orlando Magic @ 804 Washington Wizards
Projected Line: 179 points
Washington is coming from a home loss against Cleveland, where they started well the game by attacking in transition and feeding their frontcourt. When the Wizards started with the substitutions, their chemistry was gone. On the perimeter, they struggled as usual with 11-28 FG from 16-23 feet and 4-18 3pts. Their defense was decent, with the Cavaliers being a completely perimeter oriented team, while they struggled on transitions and pick and roll ball handler plays. On the other hand, Orlando is coming from a home loss against New Orleans, where both teams explored very well the edges they had on offense. New Orleans took advantage of the Magic's poor pick and roll defense and inexperienced frontcourt to dominate on this areas. Greivis Vasquez with 12-21 FG and 8 assists and Robin Lopez with 9-10 FG 11-12 FT were excellent. The Magic also explored well the Hornets poor perimeter defense to shoot 6-7 FG from 16-23 feet and 11-30 in 3pts. Orlando also shot 7-7 FG on pick and roll ball handler plays and 10-24 FG on spot ups. At the end of the game, coach Jacque Vaughn wasn't happy with his team's defensive effort: "It was not our normal defensive effort tonight"
On tonight's matchup, Washington won't make as much damage on pick and rolls as the Hornets did to Orlando in their last game. Still, Washington is #12 on this kind of plays, but with just 0.54 PPP on their last 10 games! Besides that, Washington has also some decent transition numbers and with Nene Hilario playing, they have a decent post up game. We also know that the Wizards shoot a lot from the perimeter, so we need to look at Orlando's defense on transitions, post ups and long range shooting. Orlando is #13 on transition defense and #5 on fast break points allowed per game, #13 on post up defense and #2 on 3pts defense with 32.6% 3pts allowed. Orlando is also a very good defensive rebounding team and they won't give a lot of second chance points to the Wizards. Therefore, I give a clear edge to the Magic defense over the Wizards offense, even with Glen Davis being out with a shoulder injury.
On the other hand, Washington defended very well Kyrie Irving's pick and rolls, as Cleveland shot 2-11 FG on pick and roll ball handler plays. The fact that their defense is #6 on this kind of play isn't a fluke! The Wizards is also #5 on transition defense, while Orlando is #30 on transition offense. Washington's defense is also #11 on cuts defense, an area where Orlando's offense is good. The matchup clearly favors a low scoring game, as this is why Orlando won the first game by 90-83, on a low scoring game. I expect another low scoring game. Looking at the matchup, it really favors both defenses, so I'll be also taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 803/804 Under 182,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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