Houston at Chicago
NBA - 507 Houston Rockets @ 508 Chicago Bulls
Projected Line: 200 points
Houston will want to raise the pace for tonight. I've read what coach Kevin McHale said about tonight's game and no way the Rockets will want to play a half court game with Chicago. Houston's pick and roll ball handler plays and transitions are excellent and the Bulls' defense has been struggling on these two kind of plays, as they are #16 on pick and roll ball handler defense and #27 on transition defense. On the backcourt, I doubt that Chicago's defense with Kirk Hinrich and Marco Belinelli will be able to hang around with Jeremy Lin/Toney Douglas and James Harden. That's why the Bulls aren't a good a pick and roll defensive team.
On the other side, Houston's defense is really mediocre. They don't defend on transition and their team help defense is terrible, with poor defensive rotations, so a team with good ball movement can easily pound them. Houston is #26 on transition defense, #24 on post up defense, #20 on off screens defense and #21 on spot up defense, so Chicago has conditions to explore these weaknesses due to their great ball movement, as only San Antonio has a better assists rate than the Bulls. Carlos Boozer will have a considerable edge over Marcus Morris and with the Bulls having a lot of volume of their shots at the rim and 16-23 feet, they will explore the Rockets' defensive problems on these areas: #24 on rim defense with 65.1% FG allowed and #27 on 16-23 feet defense with 40.2% FG allowed.
The first game between these two teams was a low scoring game, as Chicago shot 2-16 3pts and 11-19 FT, while Houston committed 23 turnovers! Things will be different today, with both teams having good offensive games. I expect a high scoring game and so, I'll be taking the Over on this contest.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507/508 Over 196,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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