NBA - 509 Indiana Pacers @ 510 New Orleans Hornets
Projected Line: 175 points
We are in presence of two teams that love to play at a slow pace: New Orleans plays on the slowest pace in the league, while Indiana is #27 in the league (#1 the fastest, #30 the slowest). Both teams will play their fourth game in five days tonight, with both teams also having played last night. I have no doubts this will be a very slow half court game. New Orleans has a terrible perimeter defense, as they are #28 on 3pts defense by allowing 39.0% 3pts. The reason for that is the fact that the Hornets prefer to protect the paint and so, they eventually leave open space on the outside. Fortunately for them, Indiana is a good matchup for their defense, as they are a low post team that isn't a good outside shooting team. Indiana is only #23 in the league with 34.2% 3pts and they won't be able to expose the Hornets poor perimeter defense team.
On the other hand, New Orleans is a perimeter shooting team, as they rely on the pick and rolls and outside shooting with Ryan Anderson. The problem for the Hornets is that Indiana is #1 on 3pts defense by allowing just 30.9% 3pts. On a slow paced game and with matchups favoring both defenses, I expect this game to become an ultra low scoring game and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509/510 Under 179 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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