Projected Line: Miami by 9 points
After losing against the Knicks at home, Miami had the following defensive ratings on their last five games: 100.03, 106.72, 106.18, 83.71 and 99.45. Their recent defensive improvement is clearly evident. Miami's defense is all about putting pressure on the ball handlers and they forced 20 turnovers to Minnesota on their last game. In fact, they are forcing 17.8 turnovers per game since their loss against the Knicks, while they were averaging just 14.1 turnovers per game until that loss. While Minnesota caused them great problems on rebounding, as Minnesota is #3 on offensive rebounding, Dallas is just #28 and their frontcourt isn't powerful and they won't be able to explore some rebounding problems that the Heat have been having. Also Elton Brand and Brandon Wright are questionable for tonight's game, so I really expect Dallas frontcourt to struggle tonight.
When Dallas gets pressured on offense, they are very prone to commit turnovers. They have some games where they pretty much don't commit turnovers, but then they have games where they commit more than 20 turnovers. This is related to the pressure their opponents put on them and with Derek Fisher out for tonight's game and against Miami's highly pressuring defense, I expect Miami to have a nice edge in here. Dallas needs their transition plays to be effective, but I don't expect that to happen tonight, as Miami is #2 on transition defense and #5 on turnovers per possession.
Having in account the injuries on Dallas frontcourt right now, it's likely that the Mavericks will use a small lineup tonight with Dahntay Jones at the SF position and Shawn Marion as PF. With Miami fired up to finally have a good performance on a TNT game (very close win over San Antonio's "B" team and a home loss to the Knicks), I believe the Heat will have a blowout win tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503 Miami Heat (-5,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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