Projected Line: 183 points | Indiana by 7 points
Utah is coming from a road win in Brooklyn last night on a super slow paced game. Brooklyn started the game well with a 57-44 lead at halftime, but then they couldn't do anything right on offense during the second half, with a very predictable offense. They had no presence on the inside with 11-23 FG at the rim and 10-18 FG from 3-9 feet, while they shot 1-8 FG from 16-23 feet and 7-17 treys! Deron Williams struggled on their perimeter shooting, but the Nets compensated that with a good game on isolation plays with 8-13 FG. Utah had some terrible numbers on the outside with 5-20 3pts and 8-23 FG from 16-23 feet, however they dominated the paint with 18-21 FG at the rim and 18 offensive boards. They grabbed 56% of the boards and had good transition numbers with 19 fast break points and 8-13 FG on transitions. The Jazz won the game, but they really struggled with 2-12 FG on post up plays and 3-20 FG on spot up plays!
Indiana is coming from a road loss at Milwaukee last night, where they committed 20 turnovers that led to 20 points for the Bucks. The Bucks won the game in the third quarter and Indiana was never able to recover at the end. The Pacers struggled on defending an effective Brandon Jennings. Milwaukee shot 9-19 FG on pick and roll ball handler plays and 5-8 FG on offensive rebounds. The Pacers surprisingly struggled on their transition defense as well, where they are generally a top defense. Indiana shot just 4-17 FG on post up plays and that was one of the main reasons for their defeat yesterday. The Pacers rotated well the team, so no player was on the court for more than 38 minutes.
So, the Jazz will play at Indiana tonight and having in account all the problems that Utah is currently having on their perimeter shooting, it's important to know how Indiana will defend Utah at the paint tonight. We know that Indiana is a top team on transition defense and even though they had some problems last night due to turnovers and some lack of effort at times, they are still #1 in the league with 0.98 PPP allowed. Indiana is also #1 on points in the paint allowed per game, while they are just #27 on post up defense. However, it's important to note that the Pacers have been playing much better on defending post up plays over the last five games. The Pacers are also #2 on defensive rebounding with 75.2% and as expected, they have a good interior defense that will cause problems to Utah's offense that is without confidence right now to shoot well from the outside.
On the other hand, I expect an edge for the Pacers backcourt with Paul George and George Hill having a size edge over Utah's undersized backcourt. Indiana won't have an easy task on the frontcourt offense, but David West has a good shot of pounding Paul Millsap on the down low. With Indiana having a good matchup on defense, I believe they will do enough on offense to have a comfortable win tonight. I expect an easy win for the Pacers tonight on a low scoring game, therefore I'll be taking Indiana and the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Under 188 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 702 Indiana Pacers (-3,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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