NBA - 503 Boston Celtics @ 504 Los Angeles Clippers
Projected Line: 194 points
Boston's biggest defensive problem should be well explored by the Clippers tonight. The Celtics have been struggling heavily in stopping the dribble penetration from the opposing guards, who just pound them time after time. Their rotations are quite slow and they aren't sharp like they used to be in previous seasons (they are #25 on cuts defense). Considering the fact that the Clippers' second unit tries to penetrate into the basket 90% of the time and with the Celtics being the worst team in the league in transition defense with 1.28 PPP, things will be very tough for the Celtics defense tonight. The Celtics defense are good on pick and roll ball handler plays and spot up plays where they are #3 in the league. However, the athleticism of the Clippers frontcourt will be a clear problem for Boston as well, with the Clippers having tried 37% of their shots at the rim over their last 10 games with a 69% FG efficiency. Boston allowed 12, 14, 25 and 10 fast break points to their last four games against top 10 fast break teams and now against the Clippers, who are excellent on this kind of plays, they will get pounded by the quick transitions of the LA team. Boston may have allowed just 76 points to a struggling Brooklyn team, but things will be very different against a very good Clippers offense that is currently carrying a lot of momentum right now.
On the other hand, the Celtics offense has been shooting well at the rim with 69% FG on this area lately. But their key keeps being their 16-23 feet shots that they attempt a lot with good efficiency. They are by far the best 16-23 feet shooting team in the league with 45.9% FG, while being #6 on spot ups, #1 on cuts, #6 on pick and roll ball handler and #2 on post up plays. The Clippers defense is #5 on 16-23 feet defense by allowing 34.8% FG from this area, however during their 14 games winning streak they have just faced one top 10 team in 16-23 feet shooting in Dallas and their offense is regressing a bit right now. Boston with their good ball movement and with a nice shooting from 16-23 feet will be able to take advantage of the aggressive Clippers defense that wants to leave for their offense soon and they will keep gambling a lot on defense.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Over 190 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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