NBA - 709 Detroit Pistons @ 710 Atlanta Hawks
Projected Line: Atlanta by 5 points
This is a good spot for both teams, as they had three days off to rest and prepare for tonight's game. With Devin Harris doubtful for tonight, I believe Atlanta will use the same lineup from their last game against Chicago: Al Horford - Josh Smith - Kyle Korver - Louis Williams - Jeff Teague. In that game against the Bulls, Atlanta crushed them on the boards, but Chicago were dead tired after a very physical game at NY against the Knicks the night before. The truth is that the Hawks rebounding isn't good, as they had grabbed just 48.15%, 46.83%, 48.09% and 45.89% of the rebounds in their previous four games. The Hawks also took advantage of the Bulls problems on transition defense to pound them with 7-12 FG on this kind of plays. They also looked good on post ups, with Al Horford finally having a good game.
The problem for the Hawks offense tonight is that the Pistons defense is a horrible matchup for them. Atlanta is #7 on transitions and #14 on cuts on their offense. However, Detroit is #8 on transition defense and #2 on cuts defense! Atlanta is also attempting a lot of treys (#5 on 3pts attempts per game), but the Pistons are #2 on 3pts defense with just 32.8% 3pts allowed and also #6 on spot up defense! Detroit's defense only struggles on pick and roll ball handler (#23) and post ups (#30), but Atlanta's offense is just #25 in both pick and roll ball handler and post ups, so they won't take advantage of the Pistons defensive problems tonight!
On the other hand, Detroit is one of the teams that has more volume of their shots at the rim with 37%. Atlanta started the season well on rim defense, but they have been regressing and they have allowed 69% FG at the rim over the last few games. Even though they don't have a lot of efficiency on their rim shots, with so many shots close to the basket and with the Hawks rim defense not being great, Detroit will eventually make a decent number of those. The Pistons are efficient on cuts and transitions, while they have been also improving very quickly on spot ups. Atlanta's defense is between #10 and #15 in these three areas, so Detroit should be able to have a decent offensive game tonight.
Detroit has all the necessary conditions to make this game close. Their defense is a terrible matchup for the Hawks offense, while their offense should be able to have a decent game tonight. With Louis Williams in the starting lineup, Atlanta doesn't have a great ball handler coming off the bench anymore, unlike Detroit that has Rodney Stuckey. I see Detroit making this game very close and so, I'll be taking the Pistons in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 709 Detroit Pistons (+8) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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