Projected Line: Atlanta by 6 points
A lot of people are expecting the Saints to have an upset win tonight, as not only they have been dominating the Falcons over the last seasons, as they are currently 5-6 on the season and with a loss tonight, they will begin to be a bit far from a wild card stop. However, Atlanta has a revenge spot for this contest and as they are clearly the better team out of the two this season, I believe the Falcons will in fact have a comfortable win on this contest.
If we take a look at the current line and having in consideration the typical home court edge of 3 points, the current line is saying that Atlanta and New Orleans have a similar level, while they are indeed very far from that. I won't even mention the difference between their records (10-1 vs 5-6), as Atlanta is clearly a better team than New Orleans in both offense and defense. Matt Ryan (#2 in completion percentage, #3 in yards per pass attempt, #8 in QB rating and #2 in third down conversion) is being more effective than Drew Brees (#14 in completion percentage, #9 in yards per pass attempt, #7 in QB rating and #6 in third down conversion), while the Falcons' pass defense (11/11 TD/INT ratio, #16 in completion percentage allowed, #21 in yards allowed per pass attempt, #10 in QB rating allowed and #13 in third down conversion allowed) is also being much better than the Saints' terrible pass defense (22/8 TD/INT ratio, #22 in completion percentage allowed, #32 in yards allowed per pass attempt, #29 in QB rating allowed and #21 in third down conversion allowed).
Some people may argue that New Orleans has a better running game than Atlanta, but this game won't be decided on the running game, like Atlanta's last week game in Tampa Bay wasn't, even though the Bucs have in Doug Martin a massive threat on the running game. The Falcons have revenge for this game, they are playing with a lot of momentum and confidence right now, they have a more effective passing game and their defense is certainly much better than the Saints' defense. Both teams will have their share of points tonight, but Atlanta's bigger ability in making big plays on third downs on offense and having defensive stops on defense make me believe that the Falcons are going to have a good win tonight by a difference of about one touchdown. Therefore, I'll be taking Atlanta in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 302 Atlanta Falcons (-3) @ -135 / 1.74 on Bookmaker
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