NFL Week 11 - 413 Green Bay Packers @ 414 Detroit Lions
Projected Line: Green Bay by 6 points
Green Bay is 12-1 on their last 13 games against Detroit and honestly, I believe this will be 13-1 L14 after today's game. The Packers had a bye week to prepare this game and even though they aren't healthy on defense, their offense can compensate that with Aaron Rodgers being back at his top form. He will have Jordy Nelson back on the field and they shouldn't have problems in pounding the Lions pass defense that has been allowing a lot of completions (#28) and they have just intercepted the opposing quarterback five times this season. Detroit is also dealing with a lot of injury problems on their secondary with both starting safeties being out of this contest and the Packers have the right personnel to expose the secondary problems of the Lions today.
On the other hand, Matthew Stafford has been having an inconsistent season and Green Bay's pass defense is indeed massively improved from the disaster they were last season. Their great pass rush helps (even though Clay Matthews is out of today's game) and their coverage has been really good, as they are #5 in completions% allowed, #9 in yards allowed per pass attempt, #6 in QB rating allowed and #7 in third down conversion allowed! I believe Stafford will be able to throw a couple of good passes, but I don't expect him to have a great game today against a quite good pass defense. As the Lions' running game is average at best and the Packers are also in the top 10 in rushing yards allowed per carry, I believe Detroit won't have the offensive efficiency that Green Bay will surely have today and therefore, I'll be taking the Packers in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 413 Green Bay Packers (-3) @ -105 / 1.95 on Bookmaker
NFL Week 11 - 415 Arizona Cardinals @ 416 Atlanta Falcons
Projected Line: Atlanta by 13 points
I expect Atlanta to bounce back today after losing their first game of the season in New Orleans. The Falcons are being excellent on their passing game and even a good pass defense like Arizona will struggle against them today. Matt Ryan has just too many quality options on the receivers for the Cardinals to be able to avoid the Falcons to have a couple of big plays per half on this game. Atlanta is averaging more than 27 points per game and it will very hard for Arizona to avoid the Falcons to score a considerable number of points today, especially with their offense struggling big time and the Falcons prone to start their drives with a good field position because of that.
Arizona's offense has been a disaster this season, as not only their offensive line is one of the worst offensive lines in the history of football, as John Skelton is struggling with confidence and their running game is last in the league in rushing yards per carry with just 3.4! Atlanta doesn't have a great defense, but they have a decent enough pass rush to put pressure on Skelton today, while they are also quite good in getting takeaways, so I believe Arizona will have another game where they will massively struggle on offense.
With Atlanta on bounce back mode having another positive offensive game and with the Cardinals struggling once again big time on offense, I expect the Falcons to have an easy win in here and so, I'll be taking them today.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 416 Atlanta Falcons (-9,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NFL Week 11 - 417 Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 418 Carolina Panthers
Projected Line: Carolina by 3 points
I took the Buccaneers over the last two weeks with success, however I don't think they are good enough to be favored on a divisional road game against a team that will be very motivated to beat them, after losing at Tampa Bay back in week 1. The Buccaneers have one of the best offenses in football, however Carolina has a quite decent all-around defense that should be able to limit Tampa Bay's offense today. In fact, the same happened last week against San Diego, as Tampa Bay's offense scored only 20 points and then benefited from an interception TD and a blocked punt TD to score a total of 34 points.
While the Buccaneers will have a decent but not huge offensive game, they will struggle on defense, especially against the pass, as their secondary is indeed quite poor (#25 in completion percentage allowed and #30 in yards allowed per pass attempt). Cam Newton isn't having a good season, but he is being able to throw some big plays, as he is #4 in the league in yards per pass attempt! Tampa Bay offers him a good matchup on the passing department and even though the Buccaneers have a great run defense to limit the Panthers' running game, I believe Carolina should be able to pound the Buccaneers on the passing game today.
Carolina is a much better team than the 2-7 record shows (they have had one of the toughest schedules in the league so far) and they will be fully motivated for this divisional game. Tampa Bay is in my opinion on a letdown spot today and they will struggle defensively today, while Carolina's underrated defense will make a good job against Tampa Bay's potent offense. I believe the Buccaneers shouldn't be a road favorite in here and so, I'm taking Carolina today.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 418 Carolina Panthers (+1) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NFL Week 11 - 425 Jacksonville Jaguars @ 426 Houston Texans
Projected Line: 36 points
There isn't much to say in here, as we are talking about a game between one of the best teams in the league and of the worst teams in the league. Houston's offense is very running-oriented and I expect to see Arian Foster to have a huge workload today, even though the Texans hasn't been very effective on the running game this season (#20 with 3.9 Y/C). Jacksonville has an average defense against both the running and the passing game, therefore I believe they won't allow the Texans to score a massive number of points today.
The problem for Jacksonville is that I don't know how they will score at all. Blaine Gabbert is banged up with a shoulder injury and if he is bad healthy, let alone injured. Houston's pass defense is excellent and they won't allow any big play to the Jaguars today. With Maurice Jones-Drew out with a foot injury, the Jaguars' running game has been quite poor as well and Houston's run defense should be also able to shutdown the running game of Jacksonville today.
With Jacksonville's decent defense keeping the score respectable and with Houston's defense completely shutting down the Jaguars offense, I believe we are into a similar game to the one Houston played against Buffalo two weeks ago and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 425/426 Under 41 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
NFL Week 11 - 429 New Orleans Saints @ 430 Oakland Raiders
Projected Line: New Orleans by 8 points
New Orleans is coming from a huge win at home against Atlanta, where their offense looked back to last year's level. Not only Drew Brees is getting back into his top form, as the running game has reappeared and with that, they have absolutely pounded both Philadelphia and Atlanta over the last two weeks, while scoring 28 and 31 points in those games. Oakland has a poor secondary and their run defense is also prone to some struggles (as Doug Martin showed two weeks ago), so I expect New Orleans to keep their offensive momentum today and completely pound the Raiders defense today.
The problem for Oakland is that they won't be able to keep themselves close in the score against a potent Saints offense. New Orleans' defense may be poor, but it has actually played better on clutch moments recently, while their pass rush is also looking decent! Carson Palmer is known for being a bit turnover prone, especially when his team is behind on the score, and I believe that even though he will throw some good plays against the poor secondary of the Saints, he will also commit some errors that won't allow his team to stay competitive against the unstoppable Saints defense.
Therefore, I expect an easy win for New Orleans in here and so, I'll be taking them today.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 429 New Orleans Saints (-5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
2-Team 6pts Teaser:
NFL Week 11 - 419 Cleveland Browns @ 420 Dallas Cowboys
NFL Week 11 - 431 San Diego Chargers @ 432 Denver Broncos
Dallas is coming from a great road win in Philadelphia and they are now 4-5 with three home games ahead against poor teams! I believe the Cowboys should be able to score a decent number of points today against a Browns defense that is average, but very far from being able to shutdown the Cowboys offense today. Tony Romo has been looking better recently and I believe he will remain turnover-free today, while helping his team scoring a decent number of points. On the other hand, Cleveland's offense has been looking quite poor, as Brandon Weeden is getting worse and worse, while Trent Richardson is having a very inconsistent season and he keeps being banged up with a ribs injury. Therefore, I expect a comfortable home win for Dallas today.
Denver is carrying a huge momentum right now, with Peyton Manning being on his top form, while the defense is also playing some great football right now. They won't have problems in outplaying the Chargers' pass defense that is average and that won't handle Denver's excellent passing game. On the other hand, Denver has the best pass rush in the league, while they are also in the top 10 in both the pass and the run defense. San Diego's offense has been inconsistent, with Philip Rivers committing errors in every game and with Ryan Matthews being banged up with a neck injury. Therefore, I can only expect another easy win for Denver today.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 420 Dallas Cowboys (-1) x 432 Denver Broncos (-1,5) @ -120 / 1.83 on Bookmaker
NFL Week 11 - 433 Baltimore Ravens @ 434 Pittsburgh Steelers
Projected Line: 37 points
Ben Roethlisberger's injury was a huge blow for Pittsburgh, however they are a very tough team and they will have a massive effort tonight to be competitive against their main divisional rivals. Considering Bryan Leftwich has been proving during his whole career that he isn't a good quarterback, I believe most of Pittsburgh's effort to remain competitive on this game will come from their great defense. The Steelers have once again one of the best pass defenses in the league, while being #1 in completion percentage allowed, #1 in yards allowed per pass attempt and #5 in QB rating allowed. Joe Flacco isn't having an impressive season and I believe Pittsburgh's excellent coverage will put him in trouble today. Ray Rice is having an average season and looking at the fact that Pittsburgh is #10 in the league in rushing yards allowed per carry, I believe they will also do a good job in defending Baltimore's running game today.
On the other hand, Bryan Leftwich won't do much today and the Steelers will mostly use their running game to advance in the field. Even though a lot has been said about the Ravens' run defense, the truth is that they are #9 in the league in rushing yards allowed per carry, so I believe they will at least do a reasonable job in stopping Rashard Mendenhall, Jonathan Dwyer and Isaac Redman today, three decent but not amazing running backs.
I expect this contest to be a very physical one, with a lot of carries from both teams and with little offensive efficiency. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 433/434 Under 40,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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