NBA - 705 Brooklyn Nets @ 706 Los Angeles Lakers
Projected Line: 211 points | LA Lakers by 12 points
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
Brooklyn is coming from a win in Sacramento, where the it was more a Kings loss than the Nets having a big merit on winning that game. Brooklyn had poor games from Deron Williams, Joe Johnson and Brook Lopez, while Gerald Wallace was still a bit banged up and still won the game. Sacramento changed their starting lineup with Aaron Brook and John Salmons entering the lineup and even though there was a big mismatch in theory between Deron Williams and Aaron Brooks, the truth is that the Kings didn't want to set an uptempo pace on the game! This half a half court game and so, the Kings' offensive problems on half court basketball were just too evident, as they had just 13 assists, while having 17 turnovers. DeMarcus Cousins dominated down low and Sacramento shot 20-29 FG at the rim, but their terrible outside game due to a very poor ball movement prevented them from winning the game. On the other hand, the Nets saw Andray Blatche having a 11-12 FG and 22 points night, but their offense still has too many isolation plays.
According to basketball-reference, Brooklyn has had the easiest schedule so far on the league. In fact, they have only faced three good teams this season: Minnesota at home (loss), Miami on the road (blowout loss) and Boston at home (win with Rajon Rondo out). All their remaining games were against lowly teams. They have been struggling on rebounding this season. They have grabbed 50.4% of the rebounds, but if we exclude the three games where they faced the undersized Orlando and Miami, their rebounding numbers go down to 47.4%! These are normal numbers, as they have a starting center that isn't a good rebounder. This is also reflected on their defense near the basket, as they are the #2 worst team in allowing points in the paint with 46.2 ppg, while they are just #20 in defending post up plays. Now playing on the road against the best rebounding team in the league, who is also a top 5 team in points in the paint and in post up plays, while shooting almost 70% FG at the rim, I can only expect the Lakers to absolutely pound Brooklyn down low tonight!
The Lakers played their last two games under a new identity and their offense suddenly became super good. The Lakers spent most of their game against Houston Sunday night choosing between good and great shots, while Kobe Bryant had a triple-double! Everything was too easy to the Lakers due to Houston's lack of any defense, as Omer Asik can't be everywhere and the Lakers crushed the Rockets down low with 18-23 FG and 11-19 FG from 3-9 feet!
“We’re playing free, simple basketball right now,” Pau Gasol said. “We’re making good decisions with the ball and playing.”
The pace on tonight's game will obviously be super fast as that's Lakers' style right now, but the problem is that I don't believe Brooklyn's offensive flow will be good enough to counter the Lakers' offense that has been playing lights out, with Kobe Bryant having a great season. Therefore, I expect a high scoring game in here, where the Lakers' much better offense will eventually comfortably outscore the Nets and so, I'll be taking both the Lakers and the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 705/706 Over 206,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 706 Los Angeles Lakers (-5,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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