NBA Free Premium Play 11/19: Denver Nuggets @ Memphis Grizzlies

Denver  at Memphis

NBA - 507 Denver Nuggets @ 508 Memphis Grizzlies Projected Line: Memphis by 3 points I don't like Memphis' spot for today. They will play their third game in four nights and this will be the last game until a much deserved 3 days of rest until they face the Lakers next Friday. The Grizzlies are coming from another win, this time at Charlotte, on a game that was easy until the Bobcats' late comeback that forced Zach Randolph to play 40 minutes, Marc Gasol 35 minutes and Mike Conley 32 minutes. On the other hand, Denver is coming from a blowout loss at San Antonio last Saturday night, where only Ty Lawson played more than 30 minutes. Looking at today's matchups, Denver's defense has the problem that they don't defend well 3pts attempts from their opponents, as they are #27 in the league with 37.9% allowed. Fortunately for them, Memphis' offense is interior-oriented, as they attempt 35% of their shots at the rim and 10% from 3-9 feet! The Grizzlies only attempt 19% of their shots behind the 3pts line, so Denver won't be very exposed tonight on their weakness. They are #10 in the league in 3pts with 36.3%, but if we exclude their awesome game against Miami, their 3pts effectiveness goes down to 32%, a number that would put them in the bottom 10 of the league. Another proof of the Grizzlies' struggles on the perimeter shooting is that they are just #29 in the league on spot up plays with 0.73 PPP. So, the important matchup on Memphis' offense will be in how Denver will defend the Grizzlies' frontcourt. The Nuggets are a top 5 team in defending at the rim by allowing just 61% FG, while they are also #13 in defending post up plays with 0.81 PPP and #8 in defending offensive rebound plays with 1.01 PPP. It's clear that Denver defends the paint much better than their perimeter and this makes the Grizzlies a good matchup for them tonight. Memphis is being a good rebounding team, just like Denver, however the Nuggets are by far the best rebounding team in the league right now. However, in terms of defensive rebounding, Memphis isn't a good team, as they are just #18 on defensive rebound rate with 72.5%. Their defense at the paint isn't poor, but they aren't as good as Denver for example, as Zach Randolph isn't exactly a defensive player of the year contender. So, Memphis isn't in the top 10 at defending the paint or in FG% allowed at the rim. So, Memphis' frontcourt will have to spend a lot of energy in defending Denver's frontline, something that hasn't happened during their winning streak, as Utah is the only team they have defeated that has a good offensive frontcourt, something that Milwaukee, Houston, Miami, Oklahoma City, the NY Knicks and Charlotte don't have. In those games, excluding the one against Utah, Memphis didn't face a good offensive frontcourt that would make both Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph work hard on defense. Today, things will be different and with this bad spot of the Grizzlies and the bounce back spot of Denver plus the good matchup Denver's defense will have should make Denver be competitive tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507 Denver Nuggets (+7) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes