NBA - 703 New York Knicks @ 704 New Orleans Hornets
Projected Line: 192 points
Both teams are on a decent spot for tonight, as the Knicks had 1 day rest and the Hornets had 2 days rest for this contest. The Knicks offense has had some tough matchups recently at Memphis and against Indiana at home, where they had a size handicap against their opponents. In fact, they heavily struggled on offense against Indiana last Sunday, as the Pacers is an excellent defensive team, especially on the perimeter, where the Knicks are a top offensive team. The Pacers are #7 in defending pick and roll ball handler plays, #2 on spot up plays, #1 in off screens and #5 on transition defense! These are exactly the four areas (+ isolation plays) that the Knicks mostly use, so they struggled on their last contest. Things should be much easier for them tonight, as New Orleans is #22 in defending isolation plays, #26 on pick and roll ball handler defense, #23 on spot up defense, #5 on off screen defense (with a very low volume of plays) and #9 on transition defense. The Hornets are also #19 on 16-23 feet defense with 39.3% FG allowed and #21 on 3pts defense with 35.1% allowed! Therefore, I believe the Knicks' offense will have a clear edge over the Hornets tonight.
The most interesting matchup of this contest is between the Hornets offense and the Knicks defense. First of all, there's immediately a problem for New Orleans of facing the Knicks great ball pressure, where they are #2 in the league in forcing turnovers with a 18.5% opponent TO rate! But the Hornets commit a low number of turnovers, while they are in the middle of the league on offensive rebounding and free throw rate. The Hornets have a good shot volume at the rim with 34% (#9 highest in the league), while shooting 63% FG from that area (#15). This is interesting for them because the Knicks have a poor rim defense that is allowing an awful 71% FG at the rim! Even against the Pacers, who scored just 76 points against them, the Knicks still allowed Indiana to shoot 15-22 (68.2%) FG at the rim! But if the Pacers struggled in putting the ball down low due to their poor ball movement, the Hornets are much better in doing that, as they have Anthony Davis to do that plus Robin Lopez for the offensive rebounding.
But where the Hornets are surprising everybody in on their long-range shooting! New Orleans is #4 on the league in 16-23 feet shooting with 43.4% FG, while they are #16 on 3pts shooting with 34.7%! Anthony Davis, Greivis Vasquez, Jason Smith, Ryan Anderson and even Robin Lopez are all shooting above 40% FG from 16-23 feet! The Hornets are also #1 on offensive rebound efficiency with 1.46 PPP, #9 in transition plays, #11 on spot ups and #4 on pick and roll roll man, so New Orleans' offense is definitely much better than most people think and they will cause a lot of problems to a Knicks defense that has been struggling, especially down low.
I believe this game will turn into a surprising high scoring game, with the Knicks pounding the Hornets defense that has in the NY team a very tough matchup, while New Orleans will stay competitive on this game by taking advantage of their edge down low and their surprisingly very good long-range shooting. Looking at the current totals line, we have a good edge to take the Over in here and that's exactly what I'm going to do.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703/704 Over 188 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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