Projected Line: 32 points
If this game was already due to be a defensive showdown, as it puts head to head two of the best defenses in the league, things only got more defensive oriented, when both stating quarterbacks suffered concussions last week and they won't be able to play tonight.
So, Colin Kaepernick will start tonight for the 49ers, a sophomore out of Nevada University. Kaepernick has already participated in nine games of the 49ers, but this will be his first career NFL start. He's more known for his running plays than his passing plays and that's exactly what I expect him to do today. On a NFL debut against a team that has intercepted the opposing quarterback an historic 19 times on their first nine games of the season, no way Kaepernick will take risks tonight on throwing the football. He will throw the football on low-risk plays and he will leave most of the offensive work to be done by the best running game in the league that is allowing 5.6 rushing yards per carry. Chicago doesn't have an amazing run defense (#18 with 4.2 rushing yards allowed per carry), however the 49ers game will be so run-oriented tonight that this will allow the Bears to put extra defenders to stop San Francisco's running game tonight. Therefore, I believe San Francisco will adapt a conservative style today that won't have a lot of effectiveness against a top defense like the Bears.
On the other hand, veteran QB Jason Campbell will start today for the Bears. He is definitely much more experienced than Kaepernick, but this is his first year in Chicago and Kaepernick has much more playing time this season in San Francisco than Campbell in Chicago. I also believe Campbell won't throw the football a lot today because he isn't very experienced in putting the Bears playbook into play and any small error can and most likely will be exploited by San Francisco's great pass defense that is #9 in completion percentage allowed, #3 in yards allowed per pass attempt, #7 in QB rating allowed and #3 in third down conversion allowed. There's also the 49ers pass rush that has woken up recently and has sacked the opposing quarterback eight times over their last three games and that will go head to head today against a poor Bears offensive line that has allowed 28 sacks this season (#28 in the league)! So, it will be up to Matt Forte and Michael Bush to have most of the work of the Bears offense today, but they won't have an easy task, as San Francisco is #3 in the league in rushing yards allowed per carry with just 3.7 yards allowed.
I also don't expect any great returns from any of these teams, as Chicago has one of the worst return games in the league this season (Devin Hester is far from being physically at 100%), while the Bears have the best coverage in football and they won't allow Ted Ginn Jr to have a big play today. So, I don't really see how these two teams will score barring an unlikely big play or via field goals, as San Francisco is #12 on red zone defense, while Chicago is #3! But both kickers are also struggling this season, as Robbie Gould is just 18-21 FG (#16 with 85,7%) this season, while David Akers is just 15-21 FG (#29 with 71,4%)! I can only expect a ridiculously low scoring game in here and so, I'll be taking the Under on this contest.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 435/436 Under 35 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
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