NBA - 505 Miami Heat @ 506 Denver Nuggets
Projected Line: Denver by 7 points
NOTE: As expected, the public is all over Miami on this contest. So, it's possible that the line may go back to Denver -3 later today.
Miami is coming from a loss last night in LA against the Clippers, on a wide open game until middle of the 3rd quarter, when the Clippers made a good run and Miami was never able to comeback into the game. Both teams had an excellent ball movement, with both teams shooting a lot and very well from the perimeter. Dwayne Wade is physically limited and he can't be effective on the offense, while on defense he isn't defending the opposing transition plays! Ray Allen also has no speed to defend well on this kind of games and he was completely outplayed by Jamal Crawford. The Clippers' backcourt crushed the Heat on offense with penetrations that kept leading up to wide open threes. That's why the Clippers shot 10-21 from the 3pts line.
Things won't get any easier for Miami tonight, as they will be on one of the worst possible spots, on a trip to Denver. The Heat simply ran out of gas at the end of the third quarter and the scenario for them tonight isn't good. Miami has a stellar ball movement with a lot of playmakers, but they depend from good percentage of their outside game, as when they start struggling on their perimeter shooting, they start to have offensive problems. They shot 14-36 FG from +16 feet last night and on this terrible spot with tired legs, this won't be a good shooting for them. Miami defeated Denver at home on the first week of the season, but on a tight game, where Miami was super red hot on their outside shooting game with 10-19 FG from 16-23 feet and 10-25 threes. Miami was also on a back to back spot for that game, but Denver was on a worse spot, as they were playing their 3rd game in four nights, all of them being on the road! Tonight, Miami will be playing 4th game in 5 days, while Denver had two days to rest! So, the Nuggets will have a huge physical edge tonight.
Besides this, Denver is the kind of the team that the undersized lineup of the Heat will always struggle against and this has been proved in some games. Due to their undersized lineup, Miami isn't a good defensive rebounding team by being #16 on the league with 73.6% on defensive rebound rate and Denver will simply pound them on the offensive rebounds, as they are #2 on the league in offensive rebound rate with an excellent 34.9%! Once again on that game from the early season, Denver had 18 offensive rebounds, while Miami had just 7. Denver's offense loves to attack the rim with their guards and as we've seen last night with the Clippers, this kind of tactic works against Miami. The Nuggets shot an excellent 26-37 (70%) FG at the rim in Miami, while scoring a ridiculous 72 points in the paint!
In normal conditions, Denver would always be a tough opponent for Miami, but with this physical edge, I expect the Nuggets to simply outplay Miami tonight. Lebron James is by far the best player in the league right now, but he refused to leave last night's game and ended up playing 41 minutes. He will have Andre Iguodala defending him tonight and this will be a tough matchup for Lebron. With Dwayne Wade banged up and with Miami's second unit being a bad defensive unit, Denver will simply crush Miami on this very poor spot for the Heat tonight. I'm taking Denver in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 506 Denver Nuggets (-3,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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