Thursday, November 29, 2012

NBA Premium Play 11/28: San Antonio Spurs @ Orlando Magic


NBA - 703 San Antonio Spurs @ 704 Orlando Magic

Projected Line: 201 points | San Antonio by 4 points

With San Antonio playing with a 3-guards rotation, Orlando will also be able to play with an undersized lineup of Arron Afflalo, J.J. Redick and Jameer Nelson. With a good frontcourt with Glen Davis and Nikola Vucevic, Orlando has a very underrated offense! They have a good ball movement, always being able to get some great looks on the outside and on their last game against Boston, they shot 9-18 FG from 16-23 feet and 11-26 from 3pts! Their problem was on the inside with just 14-30 FG at the rim, but the truth is that Orlando impressed again on offense, with a lot of variety on their plays and with some great cuts once again! The Magic have been showing great mentality, even while losing and coach Jacque Vaughn has been a positive surprise, especially on the in-game adjustments! It's not easy at all to blow out an healthy lineup of the Magic in Orlando!

On the other hand, San Antonio is ending tomorrow a road trip with a game in Miami against the Heat. They are coming from a win in Washington, where they dominated the Wizards in the second half with a great offensive game in both the paint and the perimeter, while Washington simply couldn't take a big advantage of the Spurs' rebounding problems. Barring some occasional problems in games against the Clippers and at Toronto, San Antonio has been good on offense lately, with their Big 3 playing well whenever it's necessary. They will have a size edge against Orlando, a team that got completely crushed by Boston in the paint on their last game by getting outscored 34-60 at the paint, while also getting outrebounded 10-17 on the offensive glass. 

I expect a good offensive game for both teams tonight, with Orlando being more competitive than the current lines are predicting them to be. Therefore, I'll be taking both Orlando and the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703/704 Over 196,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 704 Orlando Magic (+8) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada

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