NBA - 513 Houston Rockets @ 514 Utah Jazz
Projected Line: 190 points | Utah by 10 points
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
Utah has recently changed into a big starting lineup and they will start Al Jefferson, Derrick Favors, Paul Millsap, Randy Foye and Mo Williams tonight, while Gordon Hayward and Marvin Williams will be coming off the bench. The Jazz are coming from a win in Washington, where they looked amazing on rebounding, as they grabbed a total of 26 offensive rebounds, while having a 48.1 offensive rebound rate! They will now face the Rockets at home and I believe Utah has the right conditions to have a good defensive game tonight. Houston tries a lot of their shots from both the rim (37%) and 3pts (33%) and while the Jazz are a top 10 rim defense and they might get better with Derrick Favors now in the starting lineup, the Rockets are on a tough spot tonight and so, I don't expect them to shoot well from the outside, especially with Carlos Delfino dealing with a groin injury, something that only makes their bench even poorer.
Houston has four straight great offensive games, with an offensive rate of 121.23, 110.02, 117.59 and 110.38 in those games. However, they faced Miami (#27 in defensive rating), New Orleans (#26), Portland (#28) and the Lakers (#10 - but quickly getting worse, as they are now playing run and gun), so the Rockets' offensive numbers are a bit overrated. Utah is #14 in defensive rating in the league and with their new and bigger starting lineup, they are defending quite well in the paint, so they will force the tired Rockets to shoot from the perimeter. Also note that Utah has only played three games at home so far on this season and they are averaging an excellent 91.42 defensive rating in home games, so don't be surprised if they absolutely shutdown the Rockets offense tonight.
I believe that's exactly what it's going to happen on this contest. I expect this game to be a relatively low scoring game, with Utah clearly coming on top of this game due to their frontcourt superiority in both offense and defense. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here on a Double Dime Play and Utah on a Single Dime Play.
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 513/514 Under 197 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 514 Utah Jazz (-6,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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