Projected Line: Houston by 6 points
I expect Houston to pick up a comfortable win on this contest. The Texans are coming from an overtime home win over the Jaguars, on a game where their defense simply didn't show up. For a team that has one of the best defenses in the league, a massive defensive bounce back has to be expected for today. Detroit may look like a good offensive team on paper, but they are struggling this season. Matthew Stafford is just #28 in completion percentage, #11 in yards per pass attempt, #27 in QB rating and #11 on third down conversion and now against a great pass defense that is #1 in completion percentage allowed, #5 in yards allowed per pass attempt, 7# in QB rating allowed and #1 in third down conversion allowed, I don't expect Detroit to have a big day on the passing game, as Houston has a great pass defense team looking for a bounce back today. It won't be Mikel LeShoure saving the day for Detroit's offense neither, as the Lions' running game is just average and Houston has also a good run defense by allowing just 3.9 yards per carry (#9). So, I believe Houston will be able to considerably limit Detroit's offense today.
Matt Schaub had a very good game against Jacksonville last week and he is indeed having a good season. Detroit doesn't have a good pass defense and they are full of injuries on the secondary and even though the Texans are run-oriented, Matt Schaub can definitely throw a big pass when the opportunity surges. Arian Foster isn't being super efficient this season, but he is being very consistent and the 3.9 rushing yards per carry obtained by Houston's running game is enough for them to keep advancing on the field due to the fact they really carry the football a lot. Detroit's run defense is just #22 in the league with 4.3 rushing yards allowed per carry, so I believe Houston will indeed have a decent offensive game today.
With Houston having a defensive bounce back, while their offense should be able to put some points on the Lions defense, I expect the Texans to have a comfortable win today and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 103 Houston Texans (-3) @ -120 / 1.83 on Bookmaker
NFL Week 12 - 107 New England Patriots @ 108 New York Jets
Projected Line: 45 points
It may look suicidal to take the Under on a game involving New England, but this is a divisional game and the Jets can indeed limit the Patriots' offense tonight. Tom Brady is having another great season, but he will be without Rob Gronkowski for today due to a broken forearm. Of course the Patriots have other solutions on the offense, however the Jets have a good pass defense by being #4 in completion percentage allowed, #6 in yards allowed per pass attempt and #9 in QB rating allowed. It's not like the Jets will shutdown New England's offense, however they have some quality on their secondary to avoid New England to constantly put points on the board on every drive they have. The Patriots have indeed an edge on the running against the weak Jets run defense, but in terms of the passing game, the Jets should be able to have a decent performance.
But I like the Under in here mostly because I believe the Jets will try to slow down the pace of this game as much as possible. They will run the football a lot and try to make the Patriots' offense stay off the field as much as possible. The Jets don't have a great running game (#26 with 3.7 rushing yards per carry), but it should be enough for them to get a couple of rushing first downs and try to slow down the pace of this game as much as possible. The problem for the NY team is that the only positive thing I believe they will be capable of doing tonight will be burning time. Mark Sanchez had a decent game last week, but he is inconsistent, his completion percentage is the worst in the league and New England's pass defense isn't as terrible as they were last season. I believe the Jets will have a lot of carries tonight, but they won't have a lot of efficiency on doing anything on offense, especially with New England having a surprisingly decent run defense.
I believe this game will be a relatively low scoring game, with the Jets defense being able to limit New England's offense with their good pass defense and with the Jets' offense being unable of doing anything decent, without the turnovers St Louis gifted them last week. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 107/108 Under 49 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
2-Team 6,5pts Teaser:
NFL Week 12 - 105 Washington Redskins @ 106 Dallas Cowboys
NFL Week 12 - 107 New England Patriots @ 108 New York Jets
I believe Washington should be able of at least making this game very close. With their division being surprisingly weak this season, both teams still have a chance of winning it, even though Dallas is 5-5 and Washington 4-6! The Redskins are coming from a good win over Philadelphia, where their offense looked good once again, especially their receivers who started catching the long passes again, after some games with ridiculous drops! Their running game is also one of the best in the league and I believe Dallas will have a field day with Washington's offense today, especially with the Cowboys being quite banged up on defense. On the other hand, Tony Romo will have a major responsibility today, as with DeMarco Murray still out and Felix Jones questionable with a knee injury, Dallas' running game is practically non-existent right now. The problem for Dallas is that their rookie tackler Tyron Smith is out of today's contest and so, Dallas' offensive line will be considerably weaker today. I believe RGIII will have a decent game today and with Dallas having so many injury problems right now and coming from a completely unimpressive home win over Cleveland, I believe the Redskins should at least be competitive today and avoid a double digits loss.
As I've mentioned on my writeup of the Under Play in the NYJ/NE game, I believe New England will be a bit limited today on offense, but they won't be stopped by the Jets defense, while I simply don't believe the Jets to put a decent amount of points today against a Patriots team that leads the AFC in takeaways with 27! Therefore, I expect the Patriots to pick up an easy win tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 105 Washington Redskins (+10) x 107 New England Patriots (-0,5) @ -120 / 1.83 on 5Dimes
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