NBA Premium Play 11/21: Toronto Raptors @ Charlotte Bobcats

NBA - 501 Toronto Raptors @ 502 Charlotte Bobcats

Projected Line: 187 points | Charlotte by 6 points

This is a horrible spot for Toronto, as they will be playing on the worst possible spot for a NBA team this season: it will be their fourth game in five nights, while also being a back to back game on the road! They are coming from a loss in Philadelphia, on a game that they led until down the stretch, where they allowed the Sixers to have a big run and win the game. Jrue Holiday did everything he wanted to do at the end of the game, while Philadelphia kept getting wide open shots at the perimeter. Both Kyle Lowry and Jose Calderon were very tired at the end of the game and the numbers show exactly that, with Philadelphia shooting 9-18 FG from pick and roll ball handler (1.00 PPP), 9-22 FG on spot ups with 7-13 3pts (1.14 PPP) and 9-14 FG on transition plays with 1.18 PPP. These were the three area where the Sixers outplayed the Raptors defense. Andrea Bargnani was a mess on defense and non-efficient on offense, while the backcourt looked decent on offense throughout most of the game, but the bench gave them no help and they were too tired and disoriented down the stretch in both offense and defense, especially Kyle Lowry, who didn't do anything well down the stretch.

Something that I've mentioned on my writeup when I took Toronto in their game in Philadelphia is that the Raptors are very prone to foul their opponents and they are even last in the league in opponent FT rate with 26.7%, but they wouldn't be exposed on that against the Sixers, who aren't aggressive, as they are just #27 in the league in FT rate with 17.2%! That was confirmed during the game, as Philadelphia shot just 17-19 FT! But now against a team like the Bobcats, who are #9 in FT rate with 22.9% and with Andrea Bargnani, DeMar DeRozan and Jose Calderon averaging 40 minutes per game on their last two games, I can only expect Charlotte to be aggressive today and to go to the free throw line a high number of times tonight. Toronto is also struggling in defending near the basket and while Philadelphia is #27 in the league on volume of shots at the rim, Charlotte is #8 with 34.3% of their shots being at the rim! They may just shoot 58.3% FG from that area, but the high volume will give them a decent number of points, especially against a poor interior defense like Toronto.

I believe Michael Kidd-Gilchrist's very aggressive style on offense will force DeMar DeRozan to have a huge effort on defense today and he has been carrying the team's offense by taking a high number of shots. On a poor spot and with DeRozan having to work a lot on defense, I don't believe he will be very efficient today. Charlotte is #5 on pick and roll ball handler and on pick and roll roll man offense and they should be able to outplay Toronto tonight, with a decent offensive game, even though they struggled on the perimeter shooting, as the fact that they are just #30 on spot ups shows. On the other hand, Toronto is on a horrible spot and I don't believe their offense will have enough energy for them to have any kind of offensive efficiency on offense tonight, especially when Andrea Bargnani has been a mess and so, most of their team's offense comes from their tired backcourt. I expect a comfortable win for Charlotte in here on a relatively low scoring game and so, I'll be taking both the Bobcats and the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Under 192 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 502 Charlotte Bobcats (-2,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes