Saturday, November 17, 2012

NBA Free Premium Play 11/17: Miami Heat @ Phoenix Suns

  
Miami  at Phoenix 
NBA - 515 Miami Heat @ 516 Phoenix Suns

Projected Line: 198 points


I expect this game to become a surprising low scoring game. Phoenix is on a tough spot for tonight, as they will be playing their third game in four nights, while being also on a back to back spot. Considering their starters will be tired and their bench is horrible, they will massively struggle on offense tonight. This is the second and final game of this series and on the first game in Miami, the pace was a very high 98.46, with Miami crushing Phoenix offensively with a 126.19 offensive rate. However, Miami will be playing their final game of a 6-games road trip and with Dwayne Wade out with a foot injury and Lebron James questionable due to illness, I highly doubt that the Heat will want to set up a fast pace on this game. In fact, they are coming from a game in Denver where the pace was a surprisingly low 86.11!


Phoenix's offensive being very inconsistent and even though they are coming from scoring 102 points in LA against the Lakers, the truth is that they weren't that efficient. They scored a lot of points because the game had a 95.00 pace, much faster than I am expecting this game's pace to be. With the Suns starters playing some heavy minutes yesterday and with them being on a poor spot tonight and with a poor bench, I expect them to struggle offensively tonight. Therefore, I believe this game will be a slow paced one, with Phoenix struggling big time on offense, while Miami will also have some issues with injuries on key players, so I'll be taking the Under in here.


Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 515/516 Under 202,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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