NBA - 705 Cleveland Cavaliers @ 706 Philadelphia 76ers
Projected Line: 187 points
Cleveland is coming a home loss yesterday against Dallas, in a close game where the Mavericks were able to outplay the Cavaliers down the stretch. Dallas shot 51.4% FG, while Cleveland shot just 37.5% FG, with Anderson Varejao struggling with just 2-11 FG! The Cavaliers defense wasn't horrible, as they forced 20 turnovers, but the truth is that they Mavericks shot very well with 4-9 FG from 10-15 feet, 8-12 FG from 16-23 feet and 10-23 3pts! They looked good on spot ups with 11-22 FG and transitions with 8-10 FG, on a good enough performance to beat Cleveland, even though the Cavs dominated on the rebounds. On the other hand, the Cavaliers offense keeps having a lot of problems, as besides the pick and rolls between Kyrie Irving and Anderson Varejao, the Cavaliers can't run a decent offensive play! They also had bad transition numbers and bad pick and roll ball handler numbers.
Cleveland's offense is mostly based on pick and roll ball handler plays, spot ups, cuts and transition plays! They faced the Mavericks last night, who is a top team in defending pick and roll ball handler plays and that made the Cavaliers struggle on offense. Today, things won't be easier for them, as they will face Philadelphia, who has in Jrue Holiday an elite defender! Philadelphia is a top team in defending cuts and transitions, so they will cause problems on the Cavaliers. Cleveland also needs to create turnovers to have easy transition points, but Philadelphia is back at committing a low number of turnovers, after some problems in the early season: just 12.2 turnovers per game over the last five games!
On the other hand, Cleveland can take a deep breath, as Philadelphia still has Andrew Bynum sidelined and so, they are lacking a reference down low. Yesterday against Dallas, Chris Kaman had 15 points, 8 rebounds and 6 blocks and it's a fact that Cleveland is horrible at defending the paint. Fortunately for Cleveland, Philadelphia is one of the teams who has less attempts per game at the rim with just 22.7 FGA and so, this is a relief for Cleveland, who is allowing 79% FG at the rim! The Cavaliers have been a decent team in defending pick and rolls and Anderson Varejao will be decisive in here to make Jrue Holiday struggle, a player who is the offensive key of the Sixers right now.
With Philadelphia not exploring Cleveland's biggest weakness, the Cavaliers have a decent chance of having a good defensive game today, while the Sixers have all the tools to stop Cleveland's offense as well. Therefore, I expect a low scoring game in here and so, I'll be taking the Under on this contest.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 705/706 Under 190,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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