Projected Line: 200 points
Miami is currently second in offensive efficiency and the Clippers are third, so this will be a game between two teams who have been playing well on offense this season. The Clippers' defense is struggling on defending transitions, cuts, post ups and isolation plays and they will be facing a Heat team that is a top offensive team in all those areas! The team from LA is also struggling at defending the three point line this season by allowing 36% 3pts to their opponents, another reason for concern, as Miami is #3 in the league on 3pts shooting with 42% 3pts!
On the other side, the Clippers have been playing well on offense with an uptempo scheme. On their last game against Atlanta, I took the Over, but Atlanta's coach Larry Drew opted with a big lineup with Josh Smith, Al Horford and Zaza Pachulia, turning the game into a half court game. Miami won't surely do that as they are faithful to their uptempo style. The Heat has been terrible on defense by currently being on the bottom 5 in defensive rates, especially on their perimeter defense, as they need to provide inside help in the paint due to their undersized frontcourt. They were crushed by Memphis last Sunday because of that and the Clippers will also have similar edges on offense for this contest, as DeAndre Jordan is playing very well, while Chris Paul will feed the frontcourt very well, something that will cause a mismatch favoring the Clippers offense.
Therefore, I expect a fast paced game in here, with both teams taking advantage of the offensive mismatches they will have on this contest. I believe this contest will quickly turn into a high scoring one and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 719/720 Over 196 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
No comments:
Post a Comment